(From BCS Guru)
Call it a hunch. But the 2007 season, one spectacularly long on upsets and short on dominant teams, might end with sort of a whimper. Maybe everything will fall in place according to form on Saturday and thus giving us one hell of a boring bowl season.
If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, as widely expected, then there won't be much drama as to the BCS bowl lineup. The Mountaineers will play either Missouri or Ohio State, with Georgia, Kansas, USC, Arizona State, Hawai'i and champions of the SEC and ACC expected to earn BCS bowl bids.
A few wild cards are still out there: What if both Missouri and West Virginia lose? What if UCLA beats USC and wins the Pac-10? What if Hawai'i loses to Washington? A total of 16 teams are still in contention to earn one of the 10 BCS bowl bids. Some control their own destiny, some are only at the mercy of the bowl committees.
Here's the outlook for these 16 teams (The Rooting Guide):
1. Missouri (11-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Oklahoma (Big XII championship game)
National title scenario: Missouri is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal. A loss will drop the Tigers to perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.
2. West Virginia (10-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh
National title scenario: West Virginia is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: Already clinched Big East title; a loss will drop the Mountaineers to either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl.
3. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: Ohio State is a loss by either Missouri or West Virginia away from a second consecutive BCS title game appearance, and third overall.
BCS bowl scenario: Ohio State has already a Rose Bowl berth in hand.
4. Georgia (10-2)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot. The Dawgs need both Missouri and West Virginia to lose and hope neither Virginia Tech nor LSU jumps them. There will be huge shifts in the polls to prevent UGA from being ranked higher than an SEC-winning LSU.
BCS bowl scenario: Georgia has a lock on a BCS berth, by virtue of being in the No. 4 spot. Most likely it'll be the Orange Bowl, but the Rose Bowl is not out of the question.
5. Kansas (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: An even-longer shot than Georgia, just about no shot at all.
BCS bowl scenario: Kansas is headed to the desert for the Fiesta Bowl against Arizona State or maybe even the Rose Bowl.
6. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Boston College (ACC championship game)
National title scenario: Slim. VaTech needs Missouri and West Virginia to lose and then hope it can jump Georgia and Kansas and not get jumped by LSU.
BCS bowl prospect: A victory clinches an Orange Bowl berth. A loss most likely will knock the Hokies out of BCS bowl contention.
7. LSU (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Tennessee (SEC championship game)
National title scenario: Very slim, but still there. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, LSU has the best chance of moving up to No. 2 and earn a date with Ohio State.
BCS bowl scenario: A win guarantees a Sugar Bowl berth. A loss will drop the Tigers out of a BCS bowl altogether.
8. USC (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl scenario: A victory means a lot for the Trojans -- sweet revenge; a fourth Rose Bowl appearance in five years; sixth-straight BCS bowl appearance, a record; and an opportunity to finish in the Top 4 in the sixth straight year, another record. A loss might mean a trip to El Paso.
9. Oklahoma (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Missouri (Big XII championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: Win, it's back to the Fiesta Bowl, opposing either Kansas or Arizona State. A loss means perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.
11. Boston College (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Virginia Tech (ACC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory over the Hokies will give the Eagles an Orange Bowl berth.
12. Hawai'i (11-0)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl scenario: In all likelihood, a win will get the Warriors a trip to the Sugar Bowl. To prevent any possible backroom dealing, a Boston College loss to Virginia Tech will help things greatly.
13. Arizona State (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will earn a Rose Bowl berth with a win and a USC loss. If the Trojans win, ASU probably will still get a Fiesta Bowl berth with a victory over the Wildcats. One potential scenario that might spoil it for the Sun Devils: Should the Rose Bowl choose Illinois, the Fiesta Bowl might opt for Kansas vs. Oklahoma if the Sooners win the Big XII title, thus shutting out hometown team ASU.
14. Tennessee (9-3)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. LSU (SEC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory will get the Volunteers a Sugar Bowl berth, an unlikely outcome after their bad start in the regular season.
15. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
BCS bowl scenario: The Illini-to-Rose-Bowl talk is dying a quick death in light of Fiesta Bowl's intention to take Kansas, even in the event of Oklahoma beating Missouri for the Big XII title. The Rose Bowl would like to preempt that by taking the only other 1-loss team available if it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game. The Illini most likely are headed to the CapitalOne Bowl.
19. BYU (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at San Diego State
BCS bowl scenario: The Cougars are only still in this thing because of the possibility of UCLA winning the Pac-10. BYU would need the Bruins to upset USC, Arizona to upset Arizona State and Hawai'i to lose to Washington -- and rise to at least No. 16 in the BCS standings. Well, it's just not gonna happen.
42. UCLA (6-5)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at USC
BCS bowl scenario: Believe it or not, the Bruins don't need that much help to make it to the Rose Bowl. A win over USC, coupled with an Arizona win at Arizona State, gives UCLA the Pac-10 title -- via the tiebreaker in a four-way tie with USC, ASU and the Oregon-Oregon State winner. Of course, a loss might keep the Bruins home for the holidays -- and that's probably where they will be.
30 November 2007
27 November 2007
The Case for Hawai'i
(From BCS Guru)
One win away. A victory over a 4-8 Washington team apparently is the only thing separating Hawai'i from a BCS bowl invitation. Destination: New Orleans.
I did say "apparently," didn't I?
The formula for Hawai'i seems simple. Win, stay in the Top 12 of the BCS standings, and earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl. But there are a couple of potential scenarios that are out of the Warriors' control. And if Hawai'i has to leave its fate to others, i.e. the BCS selection committee, then it has a lot to be afraid of.
First, let's discuss the two scenarios:
1. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, LSU beats Tennessee, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this instance, there is a chance that Hawai'i might slide to No. 13, behind Arizona State, and Illinois might move up to No. 14, thus become eligible for an at-large selection.
2. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tennessee beats LSU, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this case, it's possible for Hawai'i to drop to No. 13 after being leapfrogged by Tennessee, while Arizona State stays in the Top 14.
In either event, instead of being guaranteed a BCS berth, Hawai'i will have to vie for a spot with either Virginia Tech or Illinois. In Case No. 1, the Rose Bowl might take 3-loss Illinois should it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game, the Fiesta opts for ASU, the Orange Bowl takes Georgia and the Sugar Bowl goes for either 1-loss Kansas or 2-loss Missouri over an undefeated Hawai'i team.
In Case No. 2, Rose takes Kansas or Missouri, Orange takes Georgia, Fiesta goes for Arizona State, and the Sugar Bowl faces a decision: 3-loss Virginia Tech or Hawai'i?
I believe Case No. 1 is the worst case scenario for Hawai'i. If it comes down to Case No. 2, it should be a slam-dunk, Hawai'i should be the choice.
But what I'm saying here is if Hawai'i beats Washington, Hawai'i must be the choice. Whether it's 11th, 12th, 13th or 14th should be irrelevant. Whether the competition is Illinois or Virginia Tech, it should be irrelevant, too.
Aside from the BCS national championship game, the other bowls are really exhibitions featuring the best of the rest. And a Hawai'i team that goes 12-0 has to be considered among the nation's elite.
Forget about the strength of schedule. The non-conference schedules of Kansas and Ohio State are not appreciably better than Hawai'i's, yet both teams likely will have a place at the BCS table. The Warriors could've done better with their non-conference schedule -- and they did try, Jeff Anderson be damned -- but they cannot be blamed for the WAC slate.
While one can argue about Hawai'i's merits against a one-loss Kansas or a two-loss Missouri, there should be no debate about whether the Warriors are more worthy than a 3-loss Illinois or Virginia Tech.
There are a glut of teams that have lost three times this season, and when you have three losses, you do not stand out in any way. Illinois benefited from tying for second in a very weak Big Ten this season and its reward should not be a trip to Pasadena. Ditto for Virginia Tech should it fail to beat Boston College in the ACC championship game.
Last year, Boise State proved its doubters wrong by starring in perhaps the most memorable college football game this century. Lost in the dizzying array of trick plays that propelled the Broncos to victory in overtime was that they actually dominated much of the game against a physically superior foe.
Hawai'i should get a chance to at least duplicate that. With a record-setting Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, the Warriors have an explosive offense that's difficult to stop for any team. And New Orleans, a city famous for enchanting entertainment, should welcome the chance to host an extra Mardi Gras, instead of another run-of-the-mill big conference also-ran.
Besides, from a money perspective, the Sugar Bowl will make out handsomely anyway. It already has the BCS national title game and it should have no trouble selling out a contest involving either LSU or Tennessee. Getting an much-ballyhooed undercard involving Hawai'i is like having your king cake and eat it, too.
Or as they say in the Crescent City, it's just lagniappe.
One win away. A victory over a 4-8 Washington team apparently is the only thing separating Hawai'i from a BCS bowl invitation. Destination: New Orleans.
I did say "apparently," didn't I?
The formula for Hawai'i seems simple. Win, stay in the Top 12 of the BCS standings, and earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl. But there are a couple of potential scenarios that are out of the Warriors' control. And if Hawai'i has to leave its fate to others, i.e. the BCS selection committee, then it has a lot to be afraid of.
First, let's discuss the two scenarios:
1. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, LSU beats Tennessee, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this instance, there is a chance that Hawai'i might slide to No. 13, behind Arizona State, and Illinois might move up to No. 14, thus become eligible for an at-large selection.
2. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tennessee beats LSU, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this case, it's possible for Hawai'i to drop to No. 13 after being leapfrogged by Tennessee, while Arizona State stays in the Top 14.
In either event, instead of being guaranteed a BCS berth, Hawai'i will have to vie for a spot with either Virginia Tech or Illinois. In Case No. 1, the Rose Bowl might take 3-loss Illinois should it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game, the Fiesta opts for ASU, the Orange Bowl takes Georgia and the Sugar Bowl goes for either 1-loss Kansas or 2-loss Missouri over an undefeated Hawai'i team.
In Case No. 2, Rose takes Kansas or Missouri, Orange takes Georgia, Fiesta goes for Arizona State, and the Sugar Bowl faces a decision: 3-loss Virginia Tech or Hawai'i?
I believe Case No. 1 is the worst case scenario for Hawai'i. If it comes down to Case No. 2, it should be a slam-dunk, Hawai'i should be the choice.
But what I'm saying here is if Hawai'i beats Washington, Hawai'i must be the choice. Whether it's 11th, 12th, 13th or 14th should be irrelevant. Whether the competition is Illinois or Virginia Tech, it should be irrelevant, too.
Aside from the BCS national championship game, the other bowls are really exhibitions featuring the best of the rest. And a Hawai'i team that goes 12-0 has to be considered among the nation's elite.
Forget about the strength of schedule. The non-conference schedules of Kansas and Ohio State are not appreciably better than Hawai'i's, yet both teams likely will have a place at the BCS table. The Warriors could've done better with their non-conference schedule -- and they did try, Jeff Anderson be damned -- but they cannot be blamed for the WAC slate.
While one can argue about Hawai'i's merits against a one-loss Kansas or a two-loss Missouri, there should be no debate about whether the Warriors are more worthy than a 3-loss Illinois or Virginia Tech.
There are a glut of teams that have lost three times this season, and when you have three losses, you do not stand out in any way. Illinois benefited from tying for second in a very weak Big Ten this season and its reward should not be a trip to Pasadena. Ditto for Virginia Tech should it fail to beat Boston College in the ACC championship game.
Last year, Boise State proved its doubters wrong by starring in perhaps the most memorable college football game this century. Lost in the dizzying array of trick plays that propelled the Broncos to victory in overtime was that they actually dominated much of the game against a physically superior foe.
Hawai'i should get a chance to at least duplicate that. With a record-setting Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, the Warriors have an explosive offense that's difficult to stop for any team. And New Orleans, a city famous for enchanting entertainment, should welcome the chance to host an extra Mardi Gras, instead of another run-of-the-mill big conference also-ran.
Besides, from a money perspective, the Sugar Bowl will make out handsomely anyway. It already has the BCS national title game and it should have no trouble selling out a contest involving either LSU or Tennessee. Getting an much-ballyhooed undercard involving Hawai'i is like having your king cake and eat it, too.
Or as they say in the Crescent City, it's just lagniappe.
26 November 2007
The Final Week
(From BCS Guru)
The maddening 2007 season is coming to a close. And the lucky ones are those who have already finished playing.
Last week, Nos. 1 and 2 both went down, clearing the path for three teams to vie for the BCS national championship. After the release of the latest BCS standings, the scenarios are much clearer -- though there is still potential for Armageddon.
The Guru has broken down those scenarios and the attendant results for all BCS bowls: (*denotes team must win its final game to earn berth)
Scenario One: Missouri beats Oklahoma, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (Probability: 40.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Two: Oklahoma beats Missouri, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (49.5%)
National championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Three: Missouri beats Oklahoma, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (4.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Four: Oklahoma beats Missouri, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (5.5%)
(This would be the Armageddon Scenario, and the following would be a best guess)
National championship: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawai'i*
In all likelihood, one of the first two scenarios will occur and the BCS dodges another bullet. Should scenario No. 4 occur, it would become a BCS nightmare with as many as eight two-loss teams with a legitimate claim to the title game -- not to mention one-loss Kansas and perhaps a 12-0 Hawai'i as well.
The key game, obviously, is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown. If the Mountaineers, favored by double digits, win as expected, all is well in the BCS world. If not, then we might have all sorts of controversies, not to mention a potential split national championship.
Isn't that what the BCS is all about?
Further down in the standings, Hawai'i has nearly locked up a BCS berth by climbing into the No. 12 spot of the BCS standings. The Warriors should feel pretty comfortable right now because the circumstances virtually guarantee them an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Hawai'i simply needs to beat Washington and not get passed by anybody. Should they drop to No. 13, the Warriors then need Illinois to stay out of the Top 14 to maintain their hold on a BCS invitation.
On the other hand, the Big XII, even with three teams in the Top 10, is not assured of a second BCS berth. If Georgia (by being in the Top 4) and Hawai'i (by being in the Top 12) earn guaranteed berths, then the last two slots might be claimed by Arizona State and Illinois. The Fiesta Bowl favors ASU because of its proximity and the Rose Bowl favors the Illini because it would preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 affiliation.
There are lots of what-ifs. This season is not going to get sorted out until midnight Saturday. And even then, the debates will go on all night.
The maddening 2007 season is coming to a close. And the lucky ones are those who have already finished playing.
Last week, Nos. 1 and 2 both went down, clearing the path for three teams to vie for the BCS national championship. After the release of the latest BCS standings, the scenarios are much clearer -- though there is still potential for Armageddon.
The Guru has broken down those scenarios and the attendant results for all BCS bowls: (*denotes team must win its final game to earn berth)
Scenario One: Missouri beats Oklahoma, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (Probability: 40.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Two: Oklahoma beats Missouri, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (49.5%)
National championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Three: Missouri beats Oklahoma, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (4.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Four: Oklahoma beats Missouri, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (5.5%)
(This would be the Armageddon Scenario, and the following would be a best guess)
National championship: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawai'i*
In all likelihood, one of the first two scenarios will occur and the BCS dodges another bullet. Should scenario No. 4 occur, it would become a BCS nightmare with as many as eight two-loss teams with a legitimate claim to the title game -- not to mention one-loss Kansas and perhaps a 12-0 Hawai'i as well.
The key game, obviously, is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown. If the Mountaineers, favored by double digits, win as expected, all is well in the BCS world. If not, then we might have all sorts of controversies, not to mention a potential split national championship.
Isn't that what the BCS is all about?
Further down in the standings, Hawai'i has nearly locked up a BCS berth by climbing into the No. 12 spot of the BCS standings. The Warriors should feel pretty comfortable right now because the circumstances virtually guarantee them an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Hawai'i simply needs to beat Washington and not get passed by anybody. Should they drop to No. 13, the Warriors then need Illinois to stay out of the Top 14 to maintain their hold on a BCS invitation.
On the other hand, the Big XII, even with three teams in the Top 10, is not assured of a second BCS berth. If Georgia (by being in the Top 4) and Hawai'i (by being in the Top 12) earn guaranteed berths, then the last two slots might be claimed by Arizona State and Illinois. The Fiesta Bowl favors ASU because of its proximity and the Rose Bowl favors the Illini because it would preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 affiliation.
There are lots of what-ifs. This season is not going to get sorted out until midnight Saturday. And even then, the debates will go on all night.
24 November 2007
These Tigers are No. 1
(From BCS Guru)
Just like last week, the Tigers will be atop of the new BCS standings. But it will be the Missouri Tigers who replace the LSU Tigers as the 2007 regular season enters its final week.
Closing in at No. 2 and a spot in the BCS title game will be West Virginia. After demolishing overmatched UConn on Saturday, the Mountaineers should have a commanding lead in the standings over No. 3 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are hardly out of it, however. Should Missouri lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game, Ohio State will be playing in its second straight BCS national championship game.
This is where it gets interesting: If Missouri loses and West Virginia also gets upset by Pittsburgh next week, there will be a glut of 2-loss teams vying for a spot opposite of Ohio State. Despite its loss to Missouri, Kansas still has a slim chance of making it to the BCS title game via a backdoor.
After Kansas's loss, Hawai'i is the only undefeated team in Division I-A, with Washington left on its schedule. The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming the second consecutive WAC champion to go undefeated and earn a BCS bowl berth. The Guru projects that Hawai'i will be at No. 13, just one spot short of getting a guaranteed BCS bid. However, at the moment Hawai'i will be the 10th eligible team in the Top 14, and stands a very good chance of earning a BCS bowl berth.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Missouri; 2. West Virginia; 3. Ohio State; 4. Kansas; 5. Georgia; 6. LSU; 7. Virginia Tech; 8. USC; 9. Arizona State; 10. Oklahoma; 11. Florida; 12. Boston College; 13. Hawai'i; 14. Tennessee; 15. Illinois.
Just like last week, the Tigers will be atop of the new BCS standings. But it will be the Missouri Tigers who replace the LSU Tigers as the 2007 regular season enters its final week.
Closing in at No. 2 and a spot in the BCS title game will be West Virginia. After demolishing overmatched UConn on Saturday, the Mountaineers should have a commanding lead in the standings over No. 3 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are hardly out of it, however. Should Missouri lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game, Ohio State will be playing in its second straight BCS national championship game.
This is where it gets interesting: If Missouri loses and West Virginia also gets upset by Pittsburgh next week, there will be a glut of 2-loss teams vying for a spot opposite of Ohio State. Despite its loss to Missouri, Kansas still has a slim chance of making it to the BCS title game via a backdoor.
After Kansas's loss, Hawai'i is the only undefeated team in Division I-A, with Washington left on its schedule. The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming the second consecutive WAC champion to go undefeated and earn a BCS bowl berth. The Guru projects that Hawai'i will be at No. 13, just one spot short of getting a guaranteed BCS bid. However, at the moment Hawai'i will be the 10th eligible team in the Top 14, and stands a very good chance of earning a BCS bowl berth.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Missouri; 2. West Virginia; 3. Ohio State; 4. Kansas; 5. Georgia; 6. LSU; 7. Virginia Tech; 8. USC; 9. Arizona State; 10. Oklahoma; 11. Florida; 12. Boston College; 13. Hawai'i; 14. Tennessee; 15. Illinois.
23 November 2007
Strange Days
(From BCS Guru)
If the 2007 isn't the most surreal of recent college football seasons, then Trojan fans will be rooting for the Bruins.
Wait, they will be, at least this weekend.
That's just one of the many unreal subplots in this penultimate weekend of the 2007 regular season, consider:
* No. 1 LSU was beaten for the second time this season in triple overtime. The first defeat, at Kentucky, knocked the Tigers down. This one, a shocker of a loss to Arkansas at home, knocked the Tigers out of the national championship chase.
* The Tigers' loss is cheered in places like Morgantown, Columbus, Norman and ... Ann Arbor?
* You betcha. By LSU losing a chance to go for the BCS national title, Les Miles becomes that much closer to be Lloyd Carr's successor. In fact, he could be Michigan's next coach as soon as 10 days from now.
* The Rose Bowl will be packed with USC fans cheering on UCLA this Saturday. They'd like to see the Bruins go on to defeat Oregon and then get pummeled by the Trojans next week. All that to send USC back to Pasadena.
* Or New Orleans?
* Don't look now, but two-loss teams are entering the conversations again for the national title. It probably won't happen, as two teams are guaranteed to have fewer than two losses (Ohio State and Kansas). But a split national championship might be in the cards once again.
* And if you claim that you'd predicted that the biggest game of the season would be played in Kansas City between Missouri and Kansas, then your name must be Nick Saban.
All this sets up a potential BCS championship game between West Virginia and Ohio State. Yep, if the Missouri/Kansas winner loses in the Big XII championship game, then that's probably what you'd get on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
And that'd be a crying shame.
Can anyone really say that these are the best two teams in the country? Honestly? No. While they each have lost just one game so far, they also benefited from playing in the two weakest BCS conferences -- neither the Big Ten nor the Big East currently have another team in the Top 15 of the BCS standings. And neither Ohio State nor West Virginia played a remotely challenging non-conference schedule.
The Guru knows better than to traffic in playoff talk -- it's a pipe dream that'll never happen -- but you have to wonder if a season like this really deserves one. Or, if you like your football retro, then we'd be better off reliving the days of a good ol' free-for-all, like Jan. 1, 1984.
If the 2007 isn't the most surreal of recent college football seasons, then Trojan fans will be rooting for the Bruins.
Wait, they will be, at least this weekend.
That's just one of the many unreal subplots in this penultimate weekend of the 2007 regular season, consider:
* No. 1 LSU was beaten for the second time this season in triple overtime. The first defeat, at Kentucky, knocked the Tigers down. This one, a shocker of a loss to Arkansas at home, knocked the Tigers out of the national championship chase.
* The Tigers' loss is cheered in places like Morgantown, Columbus, Norman and ... Ann Arbor?
* You betcha. By LSU losing a chance to go for the BCS national title, Les Miles becomes that much closer to be Lloyd Carr's successor. In fact, he could be Michigan's next coach as soon as 10 days from now.
* The Rose Bowl will be packed with USC fans cheering on UCLA this Saturday. They'd like to see the Bruins go on to defeat Oregon and then get pummeled by the Trojans next week. All that to send USC back to Pasadena.
* Or New Orleans?
* Don't look now, but two-loss teams are entering the conversations again for the national title. It probably won't happen, as two teams are guaranteed to have fewer than two losses (Ohio State and Kansas). But a split national championship might be in the cards once again.
* And if you claim that you'd predicted that the biggest game of the season would be played in Kansas City between Missouri and Kansas, then your name must be Nick Saban.
All this sets up a potential BCS championship game between West Virginia and Ohio State. Yep, if the Missouri/Kansas winner loses in the Big XII championship game, then that's probably what you'd get on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
And that'd be a crying shame.
Can anyone really say that these are the best two teams in the country? Honestly? No. While they each have lost just one game so far, they also benefited from playing in the two weakest BCS conferences -- neither the Big Ten nor the Big East currently have another team in the Top 15 of the BCS standings. And neither Ohio State nor West Virginia played a remotely challenging non-conference schedule.
The Guru knows better than to traffic in playoff talk -- it's a pipe dream that'll never happen -- but you have to wonder if a season like this really deserves one. Or, if you like your football retro, then we'd be better off reliving the days of a good ol' free-for-all, like Jan. 1, 1984.
21 November 2007
Hawaii F-ed Over
(From BCS Guru)
The BCS's big dogs apparently are not satisfied that Hawai'i's BCS hopes are already on life support. They want to pull the plug altogether.
The commissioners of the six BCS conferences voted to expand the at-large pool from their own conferences from 14 to 18 teams, adding yet another obstacle in Hawai'i's quest to earn a berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Here's how it works: Until Tuesday, only teams in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings may be considered for a BCS at-large berth. But there is an additional provision that each conference may send no more than two teams to BCS bowls each year.
Right now, that's not a problem. But in two weeks, this might be a big problem. It's very likely that there will be four Big XII, three Pac-10 and three SEC teams, but only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten in the Top 14 in the final standings. That leaves the total available teams for the BCS at nine (do the math: 2+2+2+1+1+1=9).
So what to do? Potentially, Hawai'i could be sitting at No. 15, but because it's not in the Top 12 and not ahead of a conference champion, it does not qualify for an automatic bid. But with this new provision -- straight out of the school of "making-up-rules-as-we-go" -- Illinois stands to be a huge beneficiary. The Illini, now at No. 17, are in position to claim the final at-large berth.
WAC commissioner Karl Benson is taking the high road at the moment: "I don't think [the new rule] really has an effect on Boise State or Hawaii," Benson told the Associated Press. "This isn't anything that reduces or eliminates Boise State's or Hawaii's chances of getting into the BCS. Obviously, if they get into the top 12, it's still guaranteed."
But don't be surprised if Benson screams bloody murder -- and he should -- if a higher-ranked 12-0 Hawai'i team gets passed over by a 3-loss Illinois team that wouldn't have otherwise qualified until the new rule kicked in Tuesday.
Hawai'i's best hopes now rest with, for starters, an impressive victory over 10-1 Boise State on national TV Friday night. Then, a victory by UConn over West Virginia might help kick in the Top 16 clause. If that fails, then losses by Oregon, USC and Texas might become essential. And finally, if things do fall into place by Dec. 1, the Warriors must not forget about Washington.
The Huskies might be 4-7, but they handed Boise State its only loss of the season, and would love to do it again to Hawai'i in the final regular-season game of 2007.
-----
The Rooting Guide
1. LSU (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (7-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU will be going to the BCS national championship game if it beats Arkansas and wins the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: A win over Arkansas will assure the Tigers a BCS bowl berth, even if they lost to Tennessee or Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Needs help from: No one. A two-loss LSU team has a very slim chance of getting into the BCS title game. If they lose to Georgia for the SEC title, they'd have zero chance.
2. Kansas (11-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (10-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: KU will be in the national championship game if it beats Missouri and then wins the Big XII title. So far, the Jayhawks have been the only BCS conference team that's avoided the upset bug. We'll find out what they're made of the next two weeks.
BCS bowl scenario: With Oklahoma's loss, the Jayhawks are pretty much a lock for at least a BCS bowl berth. An 11-1 or 12-1 KU team will be playing in a BCS bowl somewhere.
Needs help from: No one. Even if Kansas ends up being on of only two one-loss teams -- Ohio State being the other, the Jayhawks probably will be pushed out by a two-loss team like Georgia.
3. West Virginia (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut (9-2); Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh (4-6)
National title scenario: Two weeks ago, West Virginia looked as if it had no shot of reaching the national title game. Now it appears all the Mountaineers need is an LSU loss in the next two weeks -- or to have the Kansas/Missouri survivor lose the Big XII title game. They do not leave Morgantown again this season, but style points do count when it's this late in the season.
BCS bowl scenario: Saturday's game is effectively the Big East championship game. The winner will do no worse than getting the conference's automatic bid. The loser will be out -- the Big East is not a two-team conference this year.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner and Ohio State. Even though the Buckeyes are finished, they can theoretically jump West Virginia if the Mountaineers continue to win dangerously.
4. Missouri (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (11-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Missouri may very well control its own destiny at this point. A win over Kansas should catapult the Tigers over West Virginia into the No. 2 spot. A victory at the Big XII title game should lock it up.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal for Mizzou. Win the Big XII and go to the national title game. Lose, then the at-large bid might end up with a two-loss Texas or a one-loss Kansas.
Needs help from: LSU and West Virginia. Just to be sure, Missouri will want one of these teams to lose at least once.
5. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
National title scenario: The Buckeyes need help, but maybe not as much as some might think. Either LSU or the Kansas/Missouri winner must lose for the Buckeyes to have a shot, but beyond that, it's a close call. It's possible, if not probable, that Ohio State might jump West Virginia without the Mountaineers losing a game.
BCS bowl scenario: The Rose Bowl is in hand. Now the Buckeyes are waiting in the airport lounge to see if they can get an upgrade. (I know, it's a sacrilege to say any bowl would be an "upgrade" from the Granddaddy of 'em all, but these are the times.)
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State.
6. Arizona State (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 vs. USC (8-2); Dec. 1 vs. Arizona (5-6)
National title scenario: It's not looking good for the Sun Devils, but beating the Trojans on Thanksgiving would be a start. And then at least three, probably four of the teams in front of them will have to lose for them to have a shot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will get no worse than a Rose Bowl berth by winning their last two games. A loss to USC might still net ASU a Fiesta Bowl berth, depending on what Oregon does in its final two games.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia and Oregon. Yes, one more loss by Oregon will make the Sun Devils a lock for a BCS bowl berth.
7. Georgia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Georgia Tech (7-4)
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot, but UGA is the only 2-loss team that might have a shot to get into the national title game. Here's how: Kansas/Missouri winner loses in the Big XII title game, West Virginia and Arizona State each loses at least one game. Tennessee loses to Kentucky and hands Georgia the SEC East title. And then the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Should Georgia finish 10-2 but fail to win the SEC East, it should still have the inside track to an at-large berth over Florida. What might foul up the Bulldogs' plans is a Tennessee win over LSU in the SEC title game. In that case, most likely the Tigers will end up with an at-large bid over Georgia.
Needs help from: Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State and Tennessee.
8. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one. It's unlikely that the ACC will get an at-large berth. The new rule seems tailor-made for Illinois.
9. Oregon (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at UCLA; Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State
BCS bowl prospect: The Ducks' national title run came to a crashing halt when Dennis Dixon tore his ACL early in a loss to Arizona. Now the Ducks must win their remaining two games with hobbled backup Brady Leaf just to get a BCS bowl bid.
Needs help from: USC. A victory by the Trojans over Arizona State gives the control of the Rose Bowl race back to Oregon -- provided that the Ducks win their remaining two games.
10. Oklahoma (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Oklahoma State; Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's unlikely for OU to get a BCS bowl berth without a victory in the Big XII title game. The at-large berth most likely will go to the Kansas-Missouri loser, or even Texas.
Needs help from: No one.
11. USC (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might not be over after all, and they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon lose one more game.
Needs help from: Oregon. If the Ducks lose one of its final two games, USC will win the conference by beating ASU and UCLA.
12. Florida (8-3)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Florida's chances of reaching a BCS bowl are extremely slim, but given how this season has evolved, you just can't count them out yet.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia needs to lose to Georgia Tech but still gets into the SEC title game and lose again. In order for that to happen, Tennessee needs to lose to Kentucky first.
13. Texas (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Texas all of a sudden is just an OU loss away from getting into the Big XII title game. The bad news is that there is almost no chance for the Longhorns to get an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. A Sooners loss to Oklahoma State, coupled with a Texas win over A&M will give the Longhorns the opportunity to win the Big XII.
14. Boston College (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Miami; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner. A victory there will land the Eagles in the Orange Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Hawai'i (10-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Read the post up top ... it covers everything.
Needs help from: Texas, Florida and USC. Losses by any/all of these teams will help Hawai'i tremendously in the human polls, and thus enhance its chances to be in the Top 12.
16. Virginia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
17. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
BCS bowl prospect: Ron Zook is living a charmed life. The victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State is giving the Illini unbelievable pub, to the point that BCS rules are hastily altered to potentially accommodate his team. How would you like a Florida-Illinois game in the Zooker, uh, Sugar Bowl?
Needs help from: Too many to count right now. But it'll all work out at the end.
18. Tennessee (8-3)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining two games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. A loss to Kentucky will hand the SEC East to Georgia.
19. Boise State (10-1)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: It was looking good a week ago, but now it's all but extinguished for the Broncos. It's not possible for Boise State to get into the Top 12, even with a win over Hawai'i. And it's not probable for Boise State to be ahead of a conference champion and therefore triggering the Top 16 clause.
Needs help from: God.
20. Connecticut (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: Very simple -- beat WVU, and UConn becomes the second team to clinch a BCS bid. Lose to WVU, and UConn and Larry Taylor turn back into pumpkins, unfair catch or not.
Needs help from: Big East refs. Didn't it seem like they helped the Huskies in every one of their victories?
The BCS's big dogs apparently are not satisfied that Hawai'i's BCS hopes are already on life support. They want to pull the plug altogether.
The commissioners of the six BCS conferences voted to expand the at-large pool from their own conferences from 14 to 18 teams, adding yet another obstacle in Hawai'i's quest to earn a berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Here's how it works: Until Tuesday, only teams in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings may be considered for a BCS at-large berth. But there is an additional provision that each conference may send no more than two teams to BCS bowls each year.
Right now, that's not a problem. But in two weeks, this might be a big problem. It's very likely that there will be four Big XII, three Pac-10 and three SEC teams, but only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten in the Top 14 in the final standings. That leaves the total available teams for the BCS at nine (do the math: 2+2+2+1+1+1=9).
So what to do? Potentially, Hawai'i could be sitting at No. 15, but because it's not in the Top 12 and not ahead of a conference champion, it does not qualify for an automatic bid. But with this new provision -- straight out of the school of "making-up-rules-as-we-go" -- Illinois stands to be a huge beneficiary. The Illini, now at No. 17, are in position to claim the final at-large berth.
WAC commissioner Karl Benson is taking the high road at the moment: "I don't think [the new rule] really has an effect on Boise State or Hawaii," Benson told the Associated Press. "This isn't anything that reduces or eliminates Boise State's or Hawaii's chances of getting into the BCS. Obviously, if they get into the top 12, it's still guaranteed."
But don't be surprised if Benson screams bloody murder -- and he should -- if a higher-ranked 12-0 Hawai'i team gets passed over by a 3-loss Illinois team that wouldn't have otherwise qualified until the new rule kicked in Tuesday.
Hawai'i's best hopes now rest with, for starters, an impressive victory over 10-1 Boise State on national TV Friday night. Then, a victory by UConn over West Virginia might help kick in the Top 16 clause. If that fails, then losses by Oregon, USC and Texas might become essential. And finally, if things do fall into place by Dec. 1, the Warriors must not forget about Washington.
The Huskies might be 4-7, but they handed Boise State its only loss of the season, and would love to do it again to Hawai'i in the final regular-season game of 2007.
-----
The Rooting Guide
1. LSU (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (7-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU will be going to the BCS national championship game if it beats Arkansas and wins the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: A win over Arkansas will assure the Tigers a BCS bowl berth, even if they lost to Tennessee or Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Needs help from: No one. A two-loss LSU team has a very slim chance of getting into the BCS title game. If they lose to Georgia for the SEC title, they'd have zero chance.
2. Kansas (11-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (10-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: KU will be in the national championship game if it beats Missouri and then wins the Big XII title. So far, the Jayhawks have been the only BCS conference team that's avoided the upset bug. We'll find out what they're made of the next two weeks.
BCS bowl scenario: With Oklahoma's loss, the Jayhawks are pretty much a lock for at least a BCS bowl berth. An 11-1 or 12-1 KU team will be playing in a BCS bowl somewhere.
Needs help from: No one. Even if Kansas ends up being on of only two one-loss teams -- Ohio State being the other, the Jayhawks probably will be pushed out by a two-loss team like Georgia.
3. West Virginia (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut (9-2); Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh (4-6)
National title scenario: Two weeks ago, West Virginia looked as if it had no shot of reaching the national title game. Now it appears all the Mountaineers need is an LSU loss in the next two weeks -- or to have the Kansas/Missouri survivor lose the Big XII title game. They do not leave Morgantown again this season, but style points do count when it's this late in the season.
BCS bowl scenario: Saturday's game is effectively the Big East championship game. The winner will do no worse than getting the conference's automatic bid. The loser will be out -- the Big East is not a two-team conference this year.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner and Ohio State. Even though the Buckeyes are finished, they can theoretically jump West Virginia if the Mountaineers continue to win dangerously.
4. Missouri (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (11-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Missouri may very well control its own destiny at this point. A win over Kansas should catapult the Tigers over West Virginia into the No. 2 spot. A victory at the Big XII title game should lock it up.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal for Mizzou. Win the Big XII and go to the national title game. Lose, then the at-large bid might end up with a two-loss Texas or a one-loss Kansas.
Needs help from: LSU and West Virginia. Just to be sure, Missouri will want one of these teams to lose at least once.
5. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
National title scenario: The Buckeyes need help, but maybe not as much as some might think. Either LSU or the Kansas/Missouri winner must lose for the Buckeyes to have a shot, but beyond that, it's a close call. It's possible, if not probable, that Ohio State might jump West Virginia without the Mountaineers losing a game.
BCS bowl scenario: The Rose Bowl is in hand. Now the Buckeyes are waiting in the airport lounge to see if they can get an upgrade. (I know, it's a sacrilege to say any bowl would be an "upgrade" from the Granddaddy of 'em all, but these are the times.)
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State.
6. Arizona State (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 vs. USC (8-2); Dec. 1 vs. Arizona (5-6)
National title scenario: It's not looking good for the Sun Devils, but beating the Trojans on Thanksgiving would be a start. And then at least three, probably four of the teams in front of them will have to lose for them to have a shot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will get no worse than a Rose Bowl berth by winning their last two games. A loss to USC might still net ASU a Fiesta Bowl berth, depending on what Oregon does in its final two games.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia and Oregon. Yes, one more loss by Oregon will make the Sun Devils a lock for a BCS bowl berth.
7. Georgia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Georgia Tech (7-4)
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot, but UGA is the only 2-loss team that might have a shot to get into the national title game. Here's how: Kansas/Missouri winner loses in the Big XII title game, West Virginia and Arizona State each loses at least one game. Tennessee loses to Kentucky and hands Georgia the SEC East title. And then the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Should Georgia finish 10-2 but fail to win the SEC East, it should still have the inside track to an at-large berth over Florida. What might foul up the Bulldogs' plans is a Tennessee win over LSU in the SEC title game. In that case, most likely the Tigers will end up with an at-large bid over Georgia.
Needs help from: Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State and Tennessee.
8. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one. It's unlikely that the ACC will get an at-large berth. The new rule seems tailor-made for Illinois.
9. Oregon (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at UCLA; Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State
BCS bowl prospect: The Ducks' national title run came to a crashing halt when Dennis Dixon tore his ACL early in a loss to Arizona. Now the Ducks must win their remaining two games with hobbled backup Brady Leaf just to get a BCS bowl bid.
Needs help from: USC. A victory by the Trojans over Arizona State gives the control of the Rose Bowl race back to Oregon -- provided that the Ducks win their remaining two games.
10. Oklahoma (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Oklahoma State; Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's unlikely for OU to get a BCS bowl berth without a victory in the Big XII title game. The at-large berth most likely will go to the Kansas-Missouri loser, or even Texas.
Needs help from: No one.
11. USC (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might not be over after all, and they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon lose one more game.
Needs help from: Oregon. If the Ducks lose one of its final two games, USC will win the conference by beating ASU and UCLA.
12. Florida (8-3)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Florida's chances of reaching a BCS bowl are extremely slim, but given how this season has evolved, you just can't count them out yet.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia needs to lose to Georgia Tech but still gets into the SEC title game and lose again. In order for that to happen, Tennessee needs to lose to Kentucky first.
13. Texas (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Texas all of a sudden is just an OU loss away from getting into the Big XII title game. The bad news is that there is almost no chance for the Longhorns to get an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. A Sooners loss to Oklahoma State, coupled with a Texas win over A&M will give the Longhorns the opportunity to win the Big XII.
14. Boston College (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Miami; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner. A victory there will land the Eagles in the Orange Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Hawai'i (10-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Read the post up top ... it covers everything.
Needs help from: Texas, Florida and USC. Losses by any/all of these teams will help Hawai'i tremendously in the human polls, and thus enhance its chances to be in the Top 12.
16. Virginia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
17. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
BCS bowl prospect: Ron Zook is living a charmed life. The victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State is giving the Illini unbelievable pub, to the point that BCS rules are hastily altered to potentially accommodate his team. How would you like a Florida-Illinois game in the Zooker, uh, Sugar Bowl?
Needs help from: Too many to count right now. But it'll all work out at the end.
18. Tennessee (8-3)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining two games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. A loss to Kentucky will hand the SEC East to Georgia.
19. Boise State (10-1)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: It was looking good a week ago, but now it's all but extinguished for the Broncos. It's not possible for Boise State to get into the Top 12, even with a win over Hawai'i. And it's not probable for Boise State to be ahead of a conference champion and therefore triggering the Top 16 clause.
Needs help from: God.
20. Connecticut (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: Very simple -- beat WVU, and UConn becomes the second team to clinch a BCS bid. Lose to WVU, and UConn and Larry Taylor turn back into pumpkins, unfair catch or not.
Needs help from: Big East refs. Didn't it seem like they helped the Huskies in every one of their victories?
19 November 2007
Leader in the Clubhouse
(From BCS Guru)
Jack Nicklaus is the greatest golfer in history (hold on there, Tiger, you'll get your turn). And since he went to Ohio State, a golf analogy would be apt here.
After their Big Ten-clinching victory over Michigan, the Buckeyes became the first team guaranteed to have no more than one loss in the regular season. Kansas is technically there, too, but the Jayhawks aren't quite finished yet.
So the Bucks can light up a cigar in the clubhouse and watch the numbers on the leaderboard recede. You see, the 2007 season is a lot like the U.S. Open. You want to get the hell off the course with as little damage done as possible and then watch everybody else still on it taking doubles and triples down the stretch.
That's where Ohio State is. Safely tucked in at No. 5 in the latest BCS standings. Rest assured the Buckeyes will move up. Just how much? That remains to be seen.
Will Ohio State jump West Virginia should LSU or Kansas stumble? It's possible, especially if the Mountaineers continue their cavalier attitude about holding onto the football in their final two games -- even if they win both. Is Missouri guaranteed a place in the BCS championship game if it beats Kansas this week and then Oklahoma (or Texas) in the Big XII title game? Not at all. The voters will keep a critical eye on all the remaining contenders, particularly on their flaws.
What hurt Michigan last year might very well help Ohio State this year. The Buckeyes have done their work, and all of their conference brethren have as well. The fact that their only loss was to an Illinois team that finished strong with a 9-3 record will become more illuminated because that may be the best loss suffered by a one-loss team.
In a season with so much turmoil and uncertainty, there are only two things you can be pretty sure about at this juncture: 1) If LSU and Kansas remain unbeaten, they will meet in New Orleans for the BCS national championship. 2) If (1) does not materialize, the voters -- not computers -- will divine who gets into the game, as they did last year. The current BCS system, in place since 2004, has all but neutered the computers when it comes to Nos. 1 and 2 by allowing the pollsters to hold almost all the cards.
Elsewhere in BCS wonderland, the hopes of a WAC representative in a BCS bowl were all but dashed by Ohio State's victory. The Warriors, at No. 15, may have already climbed to the top of Mauna Kea and can't go any higher. Hawai'i's only hope appears to rest with a Tennessee upset of LSU in the SEC title game, or a Connecticut victory over West Virginia -- but neither guarantees anything. Boise State's quest for a repeat trip to a BCS bowl is deader than Generalissimo Francisco Franco.
So there's a lot of think about while working over your turkey this Thanksgiving Day. And of course, make sure you have your Rooting Guide handy -- the Guru promises to have it delivered by Wednesday -- so you don't tragically end up pulling for the wrong teams.
Jack Nicklaus is the greatest golfer in history (hold on there, Tiger, you'll get your turn). And since he went to Ohio State, a golf analogy would be apt here.
After their Big Ten-clinching victory over Michigan, the Buckeyes became the first team guaranteed to have no more than one loss in the regular season. Kansas is technically there, too, but the Jayhawks aren't quite finished yet.
So the Bucks can light up a cigar in the clubhouse and watch the numbers on the leaderboard recede. You see, the 2007 season is a lot like the U.S. Open. You want to get the hell off the course with as little damage done as possible and then watch everybody else still on it taking doubles and triples down the stretch.
That's where Ohio State is. Safely tucked in at No. 5 in the latest BCS standings. Rest assured the Buckeyes will move up. Just how much? That remains to be seen.
Will Ohio State jump West Virginia should LSU or Kansas stumble? It's possible, especially if the Mountaineers continue their cavalier attitude about holding onto the football in their final two games -- even if they win both. Is Missouri guaranteed a place in the BCS championship game if it beats Kansas this week and then Oklahoma (or Texas) in the Big XII title game? Not at all. The voters will keep a critical eye on all the remaining contenders, particularly on their flaws.
What hurt Michigan last year might very well help Ohio State this year. The Buckeyes have done their work, and all of their conference brethren have as well. The fact that their only loss was to an Illinois team that finished strong with a 9-3 record will become more illuminated because that may be the best loss suffered by a one-loss team.
In a season with so much turmoil and uncertainty, there are only two things you can be pretty sure about at this juncture: 1) If LSU and Kansas remain unbeaten, they will meet in New Orleans for the BCS national championship. 2) If (1) does not materialize, the voters -- not computers -- will divine who gets into the game, as they did last year. The current BCS system, in place since 2004, has all but neutered the computers when it comes to Nos. 1 and 2 by allowing the pollsters to hold almost all the cards.
Elsewhere in BCS wonderland, the hopes of a WAC representative in a BCS bowl were all but dashed by Ohio State's victory. The Warriors, at No. 15, may have already climbed to the top of Mauna Kea and can't go any higher. Hawai'i's only hope appears to rest with a Tennessee upset of LSU in the SEC title game, or a Connecticut victory over West Virginia -- but neither guarantees anything. Boise State's quest for a repeat trip to a BCS bowl is deader than Generalissimo Francisco Franco.
So there's a lot of think about while working over your turkey this Thanksgiving Day. And of course, make sure you have your Rooting Guide handy -- the Guru promises to have it delivered by Wednesday -- so you don't tragically end up pulling for the wrong teams.
17 November 2007
UO, OU, Oh, My!
(From BCS Guru)
Just when you thought we already had our upset of the week on Thursday, Texas Tech threw a monkey wrench to the BCS machine that was just beginning to churn somewhat normally.
Oklahoma's loss provided new life to the BCS title quests of West Virginia and Ohio State. And even Arizona State, with a key game against USC on Thanksgiving, might get back in the race as well.
The Guru projects that LSU will remain No. 1, Kansas will be the new No. 2, with West Virginia moving into No. 3, followed by Missouri, Ohio State and Arizona State. Every BCS conference team below No. 6 has at least two losses, and for now, is out of the title race.
Ohio State's victory might also have driven a large nail to the coffin, if not the final one, of Hawai'i's hopes of qualifying for a BCS berth. With the Top 16 clause not likely in effect, the Warriors will need a minor miracle to get into the Top 12, and with it, an automatic BCS berth.
The Guru's projected Top 15: 1. LSU; 2. Kansas; 3. West Virginia; 4. Missouri; 5. Ohio State; 6. Arizona State; 7. Georgia; 8. Virginia Tech; 9. Oregon; 10. Oklahoma; 11. USC; 12. Florida; 13. Texas; 14. Virginia; 15. Boston College.
Just when you thought we already had our upset of the week on Thursday, Texas Tech threw a monkey wrench to the BCS machine that was just beginning to churn somewhat normally.
Oklahoma's loss provided new life to the BCS title quests of West Virginia and Ohio State. And even Arizona State, with a key game against USC on Thanksgiving, might get back in the race as well.
The Guru projects that LSU will remain No. 1, Kansas will be the new No. 2, with West Virginia moving into No. 3, followed by Missouri, Ohio State and Arizona State. Every BCS conference team below No. 6 has at least two losses, and for now, is out of the title race.
Ohio State's victory might also have driven a large nail to the coffin, if not the final one, of Hawai'i's hopes of qualifying for a BCS berth. With the Top 16 clause not likely in effect, the Warriors will need a minor miracle to get into the Top 12, and with it, an automatic BCS berth.
The Guru's projected Top 15: 1. LSU; 2. Kansas; 3. West Virginia; 4. Missouri; 5. Ohio State; 6. Arizona State; 7. Georgia; 8. Virginia Tech; 9. Oregon; 10. Oklahoma; 11. USC; 12. Florida; 13. Texas; 14. Virginia; 15. Boston College.
15 November 2007
Thanks, Bro!
(From BCS Guru)
Family business, it's a beautiful thing.
Bob Stoops wants to coach in the BCS national championship game badly, so brothers Mike and Mark took care of business Thursday night, as Arizona took down No. 2 Oregon.
It was a devastating loss for the Ducks. Besides seeing their chance to play for the national title vaporize, the Ducks might miss out on a BCS bowl altogether. As of now, Oregon doesn't even have the inside track to the Rose Bowl.
The USC-Arizona State game on Thanksgiving may very well decide the Pac-10 title, and with it, a Rose Bowl berth. The Sun Devils control their own destiny, as victories over the Trojans and Arizona will return them to Pasadena for the first time since January 1997. USC needs one more Oregon loss, but with Dennis Dixon likely out for the year, it's not that far-fetched to think that the Ducks might lose to UCLA or Oregon State -- or both.
Outside of the Pac-10, they're rejoicing in Norman, Columbia and Lawrence ... and possibly in Morgantown and Columbus as well. The Big XII is just about guaranteed to have a representative in New Orleans. And should LSU slip up in one of its final three games, West Virginia and Ohio State might be back in the national title picture as well.
So what did we really learn Thursday night? Simple, Dennis Dixon should be the Heisman winner. With Dixon, the Ducks had a dynamic, unstoppable offense. Without him, the Ducks might end up being quarterbacked by a Leaf in San Diego. (OK, cheap shot there. To be fair, Ryan Leaf did lead Washington State to a Pac-10 title in 1997, something that probably will elude Oregon and little bro Brady.)
Too bad Oregon spent all that money on the Dixon for Heisman ad. Dixon proved his worth by his absence. However, since you can trust the Heisman voters as much you can trust the poll voters, you might as well engrave the name of the first-ever sophomore on the statuette.
Hey, it's 2007. Nothing follows form any more.
Family business, it's a beautiful thing.
Bob Stoops wants to coach in the BCS national championship game badly, so brothers Mike and Mark took care of business Thursday night, as Arizona took down No. 2 Oregon.
It was a devastating loss for the Ducks. Besides seeing their chance to play for the national title vaporize, the Ducks might miss out on a BCS bowl altogether. As of now, Oregon doesn't even have the inside track to the Rose Bowl.
The USC-Arizona State game on Thanksgiving may very well decide the Pac-10 title, and with it, a Rose Bowl berth. The Sun Devils control their own destiny, as victories over the Trojans and Arizona will return them to Pasadena for the first time since January 1997. USC needs one more Oregon loss, but with Dennis Dixon likely out for the year, it's not that far-fetched to think that the Ducks might lose to UCLA or Oregon State -- or both.
Outside of the Pac-10, they're rejoicing in Norman, Columbia and Lawrence ... and possibly in Morgantown and Columbus as well. The Big XII is just about guaranteed to have a representative in New Orleans. And should LSU slip up in one of its final three games, West Virginia and Ohio State might be back in the national title picture as well.
So what did we really learn Thursday night? Simple, Dennis Dixon should be the Heisman winner. With Dixon, the Ducks had a dynamic, unstoppable offense. Without him, the Ducks might end up being quarterbacked by a Leaf in San Diego. (OK, cheap shot there. To be fair, Ryan Leaf did lead Washington State to a Pac-10 title in 1997, something that probably will elude Oregon and little bro Brady.)
Too bad Oregon spent all that money on the Dixon for Heisman ad. Dixon proved his worth by his absence. However, since you can trust the Heisman voters as much you can trust the poll voters, you might as well engrave the name of the first-ever sophomore on the statuette.
Hey, it's 2007. Nothing follows form any more.
12 November 2007
A WAC-ky Break
(From BCS Guru)
Losses by Michigan and Ohio State have a much greater meaning than knocking the Buckeyes out of No. 1, and in all likelihood, the national title race. The Wolverines now have picked up a lot of WAC fans on their bandwagon for Saturday's annual showdown for the Big Ten title.
A Michigan victory will earn it the Big Ten championship outright, and a Rose Bowl berth. But it also should kick in the Top 16 clause: Any non-BCS member will qualify for a BCS bid if it finishes in the Top 16, as long as it's ahead of a BCS conference winner -- a much easier path than being in the Top 12 for the automatic bid.
This scenario not only buoyed the chances for Hawai'i, whose quest was all but in death throes as of last week, but also brought Boise State back to life. Hawai'i now sits at No. 16 and Boise State at No. 18, both well ahead of No. 21 Michigan. It's difficult to see the Wolverines leapfrog either team now that the Buckeyes have also slipped to No. 7 in the BCS standings.
With that being the case, when Boise State plays Hawai'i at the Aloha Bowl on Nov. 23, a BCS berth may very well be on the line.
Yes, if you're a Warriors or Broncos fan, learn the words of "The Victors" and yell "Go Blue!" like you mean it this Saturday.
Besides the exciting WAC news, there is this pesky little detail about the national championship. Ah, with three weeks remaining on the season, the BCS title game race looks to be a three-team affair among LSU, Oregon and the eventual Big XII champion. With regard to that, then there are only 12 meaningful games left on the regular season.
Let's break those down before we get to the Rooting Guide, with rivalry games denoted with an asterisk (*):
Nov. 15 -- Oregon (-12 1/2) at Arizona: A game the Ducks should easily win. Then again, last year, the Wildcats romped in Eugene.
Nov. 17 --
Kansas (-26) vs. Iowa State: This could be a trap game if the Jayhawks get caught looking ahead to the showdown against Missouri a week later.
Missouri (-7 1/2) at Kansas State: The small spread suggests that this is a also a trap game for the Tigers, never mind that the Wildcats gave up 73 points to Nebraska last week.
Oklahoma (-9 1/2) at Texas Tech: Mike Leach is mad about Big XII officiating. Nothing new there. The Sooners will get their share of favorable calls in Lubbock.
LSU (-18) at Ole Miss: This will be a tougher game then it appears, but the Tigers should win going away.
Nov. 23 -- LSU vs. Arkansas*: This may be a rivalry game but the Tigers should have the clear upper hand, playing at home. LSU should be a two-touchdown favorite.
Nov. 24 --
Kansas vs. Missouri at Kansas City*: Originally a Kansas home game, now the Jayhawks probably wish to have remained that way. On the line will be the Big XII North title, and most likely also a chance for the national championship game.
Oregon at UCLA: The Ducks are catching the depleted Bruins at a good time. This UCLA team, ravaged by injuries, might not even be bowl eligible if it loses to Oregon.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State*: The Sooners are desperately trying to atone for their lone loss of the season. But they had not better overlook the Cowboys. If it weren't for the fourth-quarter collapse against Texas, this game would've determined the winner of the Big XII South.
Dec. 1 --
Oregon vs. Oregon State*: The Civil War, oldest rivalry in the Pac-10, has yielded some surprising results in the past. The Beavers, with three losses against ranked opponents and another against a healthy UCLA team, are better than your average 6-4 squad.
Big XII championship: For this game to matter, it'll have to pit either an 11-1 Missouri or a 12-0 Kansas against 11-1 Oklahoma. And the winner of this game will have an agonizing wait to see if LSU bombs in the SEC championship game.
SEC championship: Just like last year, the chase will come down to the last game of the regular season. A win will most likely send the Tigers to their first BCS title game since 2003, no matter what happens earlier in the day. A loss might result in mass chaos.
Now, without further ado, the Rooting Guide:
1. LSU (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU is No. 1 in four of six computers and enjoys a decent lead in the polls. As long as the Tigers win out, it's unlikely anyone can jump them.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Tennessee. LSU would rather play either of these teams than get into a rematch against a very talented Florida team. A Georgia victory over Kentucky on Saturday will for sure keep the Gators out of the SEC title game.
Root against: Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma. Just for insurance.
2. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (6-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 2, but they have plenty to worry about. Since they do not have another marquee game left, they are vulnerable in the polls. And if Kansas goes undefeated, they may not be able to fend off the Jayhawks for the No. 2 spot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona State.
3. Kansas (10-0)
Losable games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (9-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny, even more so than LSU. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to no worse than No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: It might be an all-or-nothing deal. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, maybe even a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss to K-State will clinch the Big XII North for KU and a berth in the Big XII title game.
4. Oklahoma (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-4); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take either Oregon or LSU losing to get them into the national championship game. But their prospect is already much improved just a week later.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
5. Missouri (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-5); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (10-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: A week later, Missouri is just a LSU or Oregon loss away from controlling its own destiny when it comes to the BCS title chase.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed, if not the national championship game.
Root for: Oklahoma. For sweet revenge, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, Ohio State and Texas. Yes, if Missouri loses in the Big XII game, it risks losing a BCS at-large berth to a two-loss Longhorns team. A Texas loss to rival A&M will make things easier.
6. West Virginia (8-1)
Key games: Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose.
7. Ohio State (10-1)
Key game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-3)
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Illinois changed everything. Not only is the national title out of the question, the Buckeyes might not even make it to the Rose Bowl. It does appear that Ohio State would be a lock for a BCS bowl berth, even if it ends the regular season with two consecutive losses..
Needs help from: No one, for now. Unless teams in front of them start losing like crazy.
8. Arizona State (9-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining two games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
9. Georgia (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining two games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs. If you're only rooting for Georgia to get a BCS berth, then you'd want the Vols to win out so UGA can avoid an SEC title game fight against LSU.
10. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College or Clemson. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
11. USC (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
12. Florida (7-3)
Key game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. But Kentucky controls Florida's destiny as it's finished with SEC games.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Both teams still play Kentucky and if UK beats both of them, then the Gators will win a three-way or four-way tiebreaker. If Kentucky loses to one of them, then the Gators are finished and must wait to see if they get a BCS at-large berth.
13. Texas (9-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big XII title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
14. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Clemson (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Boston College; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over BC will give Clemson the ACC Atlantic title and a chance for its first conference championship under Tommy Bowden.
Needs help from: No one.
16. Hawai'i (9-0)
Key games: Nov. 16 at Nevada; Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: The losses by Michigan and Ohio State have dramatically improved Hawai'i's chances for a BCS at-large berth ... but Colt Brennan's injury might offset that. Hawai'i's final road game of the season, at Nevada, might become perilous if Brennan doesn't recover in time from a concussion.
Needs help from: Michigan. Completely different from last week, now Hawai'i needs the Wolverines to beat Ohio State. While Hawai'i's hopes for a Top 12 finish and a guaranteed bid have all but evaporated, it's now very much alive for an at-large bid via the Top 16 rule. If Michigan wins the Big Ten, most likely it will still rank behind Hawai'i and therefore the Warriors qualify for a BCS bid by finishing in the Top 16 in the BCS standings.
17. Boston College (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: Saturday's game at Clemson will decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: No one.
18. Boise State (9-1)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Broncos suddenly have a shot to become the first non-BCS school to earn back-to-back BCS appearances. Upset losses by Michigan and Ohio State opened the door for Boise State, just as they did for Hawai'i.
Needs help from: Michigan and Hawai'i. Like the Warriors, a Wolverines win might get the Broncos in the BCS picture via the Top 16 rule. And of course, Boise State wants the Warriors to win all their remaining games and be a perfect 10-0 before the showdown.
20. Tennessee (7-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Vanderbilt; Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining three games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. One Tennessee loss will hand the SEC East to either Georgia or Florida. There is no backdoor way in.
21. Michigan (8-3)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Wisconsin didn't really cost Michigan anything, after the Buckeyes also lost to Illinois. A victory gives Michigan the outright Big Ten title and its fourth trip to the Rose Bowl in five years. A loss, it might be, gulp, the Champs Sports Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
22. Cincinnati (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: The Bearcats need a little help, but if they can beat West Virginia at home, they will have a great shot at winning their first Big East title and a BCS bowl berth.
Needs help from: Connecticut. If the Huskies lose one of their remaining two games, then the Bearcats will claim the Big East championship by winning out. UConn finishes the season with a trip to Morgantown.
24. Connecticut (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown.
Needs help from: No one. UConn controls its own destiny, but a loss will end all hope.
Losses by Michigan and Ohio State have a much greater meaning than knocking the Buckeyes out of No. 1, and in all likelihood, the national title race. The Wolverines now have picked up a lot of WAC fans on their bandwagon for Saturday's annual showdown for the Big Ten title.
A Michigan victory will earn it the Big Ten championship outright, and a Rose Bowl berth. But it also should kick in the Top 16 clause: Any non-BCS member will qualify for a BCS bid if it finishes in the Top 16, as long as it's ahead of a BCS conference winner -- a much easier path than being in the Top 12 for the automatic bid.
This scenario not only buoyed the chances for Hawai'i, whose quest was all but in death throes as of last week, but also brought Boise State back to life. Hawai'i now sits at No. 16 and Boise State at No. 18, both well ahead of No. 21 Michigan. It's difficult to see the Wolverines leapfrog either team now that the Buckeyes have also slipped to No. 7 in the BCS standings.
With that being the case, when Boise State plays Hawai'i at the Aloha Bowl on Nov. 23, a BCS berth may very well be on the line.
Yes, if you're a Warriors or Broncos fan, learn the words of "The Victors" and yell "Go Blue!" like you mean it this Saturday.
Besides the exciting WAC news, there is this pesky little detail about the national championship. Ah, with three weeks remaining on the season, the BCS title game race looks to be a three-team affair among LSU, Oregon and the eventual Big XII champion. With regard to that, then there are only 12 meaningful games left on the regular season.
Let's break those down before we get to the Rooting Guide, with rivalry games denoted with an asterisk (*):
Nov. 15 -- Oregon (-12 1/2) at Arizona: A game the Ducks should easily win. Then again, last year, the Wildcats romped in Eugene.
Nov. 17 --
Kansas (-26) vs. Iowa State: This could be a trap game if the Jayhawks get caught looking ahead to the showdown against Missouri a week later.
Missouri (-7 1/2) at Kansas State: The small spread suggests that this is a also a trap game for the Tigers, never mind that the Wildcats gave up 73 points to Nebraska last week.
Oklahoma (-9 1/2) at Texas Tech: Mike Leach is mad about Big XII officiating. Nothing new there. The Sooners will get their share of favorable calls in Lubbock.
LSU (-18) at Ole Miss: This will be a tougher game then it appears, but the Tigers should win going away.
Nov. 23 -- LSU vs. Arkansas*: This may be a rivalry game but the Tigers should have the clear upper hand, playing at home. LSU should be a two-touchdown favorite.
Nov. 24 --
Kansas vs. Missouri at Kansas City*: Originally a Kansas home game, now the Jayhawks probably wish to have remained that way. On the line will be the Big XII North title, and most likely also a chance for the national championship game.
Oregon at UCLA: The Ducks are catching the depleted Bruins at a good time. This UCLA team, ravaged by injuries, might not even be bowl eligible if it loses to Oregon.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State*: The Sooners are desperately trying to atone for their lone loss of the season. But they had not better overlook the Cowboys. If it weren't for the fourth-quarter collapse against Texas, this game would've determined the winner of the Big XII South.
Dec. 1 --
Oregon vs. Oregon State*: The Civil War, oldest rivalry in the Pac-10, has yielded some surprising results in the past. The Beavers, with three losses against ranked opponents and another against a healthy UCLA team, are better than your average 6-4 squad.
Big XII championship: For this game to matter, it'll have to pit either an 11-1 Missouri or a 12-0 Kansas against 11-1 Oklahoma. And the winner of this game will have an agonizing wait to see if LSU bombs in the SEC championship game.
SEC championship: Just like last year, the chase will come down to the last game of the regular season. A win will most likely send the Tigers to their first BCS title game since 2003, no matter what happens earlier in the day. A loss might result in mass chaos.
Now, without further ado, the Rooting Guide:
1. LSU (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU is No. 1 in four of six computers and enjoys a decent lead in the polls. As long as the Tigers win out, it's unlikely anyone can jump them.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Tennessee. LSU would rather play either of these teams than get into a rematch against a very talented Florida team. A Georgia victory over Kentucky on Saturday will for sure keep the Gators out of the SEC title game.
Root against: Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma. Just for insurance.
2. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (6-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 2, but they have plenty to worry about. Since they do not have another marquee game left, they are vulnerable in the polls. And if Kansas goes undefeated, they may not be able to fend off the Jayhawks for the No. 2 spot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona State.
3. Kansas (10-0)
Losable games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (9-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny, even more so than LSU. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to no worse than No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: It might be an all-or-nothing deal. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, maybe even a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss to K-State will clinch the Big XII North for KU and a berth in the Big XII title game.
4. Oklahoma (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-4); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take either Oregon or LSU losing to get them into the national championship game. But their prospect is already much improved just a week later.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
5. Missouri (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-5); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (10-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: A week later, Missouri is just a LSU or Oregon loss away from controlling its own destiny when it comes to the BCS title chase.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed, if not the national championship game.
Root for: Oklahoma. For sweet revenge, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, Ohio State and Texas. Yes, if Missouri loses in the Big XII game, it risks losing a BCS at-large berth to a two-loss Longhorns team. A Texas loss to rival A&M will make things easier.
6. West Virginia (8-1)
Key games: Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose.
7. Ohio State (10-1)
Key game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-3)
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Illinois changed everything. Not only is the national title out of the question, the Buckeyes might not even make it to the Rose Bowl. It does appear that Ohio State would be a lock for a BCS bowl berth, even if it ends the regular season with two consecutive losses..
Needs help from: No one, for now. Unless teams in front of them start losing like crazy.
8. Arizona State (9-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining two games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
9. Georgia (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining two games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs. If you're only rooting for Georgia to get a BCS berth, then you'd want the Vols to win out so UGA can avoid an SEC title game fight against LSU.
10. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College or Clemson. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
11. USC (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
12. Florida (7-3)
Key game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. But Kentucky controls Florida's destiny as it's finished with SEC games.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Both teams still play Kentucky and if UK beats both of them, then the Gators will win a three-way or four-way tiebreaker. If Kentucky loses to one of them, then the Gators are finished and must wait to see if they get a BCS at-large berth.
13. Texas (9-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big XII title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
14. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Clemson (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Boston College; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over BC will give Clemson the ACC Atlantic title and a chance for its first conference championship under Tommy Bowden.
Needs help from: No one.
16. Hawai'i (9-0)
Key games: Nov. 16 at Nevada; Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: The losses by Michigan and Ohio State have dramatically improved Hawai'i's chances for a BCS at-large berth ... but Colt Brennan's injury might offset that. Hawai'i's final road game of the season, at Nevada, might become perilous if Brennan doesn't recover in time from a concussion.
Needs help from: Michigan. Completely different from last week, now Hawai'i needs the Wolverines to beat Ohio State. While Hawai'i's hopes for a Top 12 finish and a guaranteed bid have all but evaporated, it's now very much alive for an at-large bid via the Top 16 rule. If Michigan wins the Big Ten, most likely it will still rank behind Hawai'i and therefore the Warriors qualify for a BCS bid by finishing in the Top 16 in the BCS standings.
17. Boston College (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: Saturday's game at Clemson will decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: No one.
18. Boise State (9-1)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Broncos suddenly have a shot to become the first non-BCS school to earn back-to-back BCS appearances. Upset losses by Michigan and Ohio State opened the door for Boise State, just as they did for Hawai'i.
Needs help from: Michigan and Hawai'i. Like the Warriors, a Wolverines win might get the Broncos in the BCS picture via the Top 16 rule. And of course, Boise State wants the Warriors to win all their remaining games and be a perfect 10-0 before the showdown.
20. Tennessee (7-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Vanderbilt; Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining three games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. One Tennessee loss will hand the SEC East to either Georgia or Florida. There is no backdoor way in.
21. Michigan (8-3)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Wisconsin didn't really cost Michigan anything, after the Buckeyes also lost to Illinois. A victory gives Michigan the outright Big Ten title and its fourth trip to the Rose Bowl in five years. A loss, it might be, gulp, the Champs Sports Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
22. Cincinnati (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: The Bearcats need a little help, but if they can beat West Virginia at home, they will have a great shot at winning their first Big East title and a BCS bowl berth.
Needs help from: Connecticut. If the Huskies lose one of their remaining two games, then the Bearcats will claim the Big East championship by winning out. UConn finishes the season with a trip to Morgantown.
24. Connecticut (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown.
Needs help from: No one. UConn controls its own destiny, but a loss will end all hope.
11 November 2007
No One is Safe
(From BCS Guru)
As expected, LSU and Oregon are now atop of the latest BCS standings, with a trio of Big 12 teams not too far behind. This year's BCS title race is far from over.
In the next three weeks, essentially a Big 12 tournament should determine who survives to at least make a claim for a spot in the BCS national championship game. Meanwhile, LSU and Oregon will need to each win their remaining three games to keep the Big 12 challenger at bay.
The Ducks face three teams with a combined record of 15-15. They play two of those three on the road, but have the toughest game -- the Civil War against Oregon State -- at Autzen Stadium. LSU has a road game against 3-7 Ole Miss and then a home game against 6-4 Arkansas. After that, it's onto the SEC championship game, against either Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.
The only team that might prevent the much-anticipated SEC-Pac-10 showdown -- without either team losing -- is Kansas. If the Jayhawks should sweep Iowa State, Missouri and Oklahoma (in the Big 12 title game), then they may push their way into New Orleans. Otherwise, a 12-1 Oklahoma or Missouri will have a hard time crashing the BCS title game.
But if we've learned anything from this tumultuous 2007 season, is that anything can happen. And three weeks is an eternity.
As expected, LSU and Oregon are now atop of the latest BCS standings, with a trio of Big 12 teams not too far behind. This year's BCS title race is far from over.
In the next three weeks, essentially a Big 12 tournament should determine who survives to at least make a claim for a spot in the BCS national championship game. Meanwhile, LSU and Oregon will need to each win their remaining three games to keep the Big 12 challenger at bay.
The Ducks face three teams with a combined record of 15-15. They play two of those three on the road, but have the toughest game -- the Civil War against Oregon State -- at Autzen Stadium. LSU has a road game against 3-7 Ole Miss and then a home game against 6-4 Arkansas. After that, it's onto the SEC championship game, against either Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.
The only team that might prevent the much-anticipated SEC-Pac-10 showdown -- without either team losing -- is Kansas. If the Jayhawks should sweep Iowa State, Missouri and Oklahoma (in the Big 12 title game), then they may push their way into New Orleans. Otherwise, a 12-1 Oklahoma or Missouri will have a hard time crashing the BCS title game.
But if we've learned anything from this tumultuous 2007 season, is that anything can happen. And three weeks is an eternity.
10 November 2007
Another 1 Goes Down
(From BCS Guru)
Well, you just knew this had to happen, right? There isn't a single team that's immune to an upset, and Ohio State is just the latest victim in this season of upheaval.
The immediate beneficiaries are LSU, who outclassed an overmatched Louisiana Tech, and Oregon, who was eating cheeseburgers while reviewing its schematic advantage against Arizona next week. The Guru projects that the Tigers and Ducks will be the new occupants of Nos. 1 and 2.
But they should by no means rest easy. They may both be jumped without losing a game. Looming at No. 3 will be Kansas, the only remaining unbeaten BCS conference team. The Jayhawks will almost certainly vault to the Top 2 if they can win their three remaining games. Oklahoma should check in at No. 4 and then a big drop to No. 5 Missouri.
A couple of other developments that the Guru will expand on later this week: 1) Neither the Big Ten nor the Big East will have an eligible at-large team in the new BCS standings, which should help Hawai'i's cause. 2) The Big 12, SEC and Pac-10 are well positioned to secure an at-large entry, leaving the ACC vulnerable should Hawai'i qualify via either the Top 12 or the Top 16 rule.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. LSU, 2. Oregon, 3. Kansas, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Missouri, 6. Ohio State, 7. West Virginia, 8. Arizona State, 9. Georgia, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Texas, 12. Florida, 13. Boston College, 14. USC, 15. Hawai'i.
Well, you just knew this had to happen, right? There isn't a single team that's immune to an upset, and Ohio State is just the latest victim in this season of upheaval.
The immediate beneficiaries are LSU, who outclassed an overmatched Louisiana Tech, and Oregon, who was eating cheeseburgers while reviewing its schematic advantage against Arizona next week. The Guru projects that the Tigers and Ducks will be the new occupants of Nos. 1 and 2.
But they should by no means rest easy. They may both be jumped without losing a game. Looming at No. 3 will be Kansas, the only remaining unbeaten BCS conference team. The Jayhawks will almost certainly vault to the Top 2 if they can win their three remaining games. Oklahoma should check in at No. 4 and then a big drop to No. 5 Missouri.
A couple of other developments that the Guru will expand on later this week: 1) Neither the Big Ten nor the Big East will have an eligible at-large team in the new BCS standings, which should help Hawai'i's cause. 2) The Big 12, SEC and Pac-10 are well positioned to secure an at-large entry, leaving the ACC vulnerable should Hawai'i qualify via either the Top 12 or the Top 16 rule.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. LSU, 2. Oregon, 3. Kansas, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Missouri, 6. Ohio State, 7. West Virginia, 8. Arizona State, 9. Georgia, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Texas, 12. Florida, 13. Boston College, 14. USC, 15. Hawai'i.
09 November 2007
The World's Most Dangerous Man
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a punk, maybe a street thug ... compared to Vladimir Putin.
While the West vacillates about what to do with Iran's nuclear ambitions, it's quietly letting slide a monstrous buildup that may one day prove Tehran's shenanigans seriously inconsequential.
Could it be that we're at 1938 again?
Since Putin took over the presidency of ostensibly democratic new Russia in 2000, he has systematically eliminated his rivals, intimidated his neighbors, dismantled democratic institutions and consolidated his power. At the same time, he has bolstered Russia's international prestige and lifted it out of the economic doldrums that plagued the nation after the collapse of Soviet communism.
If this sounds like history is repeating itself, it just might be.
In 1938, Germany had freed itself from the shackles of the Treaty of Versailles and quickly regained its preeminence among the world's leading nations. Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 promising a reassertion of German nationalism and economic recovery, and in five years, he had mostly achieved those aims.
For that, he was lauded as a hero domestically, even as concentration camps were popping up all over the Reich and one-party rule was becoming more draconian by the day. The Germans, many of them, anyway, were enjoying the Autobahns and the summers on the Baltic, even if their Jewish neighbors were harassed and beaten during Kristallnacht and other activities on the dawn of the Holocaust.
Fast forward to 2007, the Russians likewise are enjoying a recovery of their own. With petrorubles pouring in, thanks to Putin's shrewd exploitation of Russia's rich natural resources, there is no debate that ordinary Russians are better off now than they were in the 1990s. And because of Putin's intransigence in all things that may be construed as pro-American -- Iraq, Iran, defense missiles shield -- he is slowly but surely reclaiming Russia's position as the most serious adversary of the United States.
The West's attitude toward Putin, to date, has been that of tacit tolerance, for various reason. In western Europe, where more than half of its natural gas is supplied by Russia, there is a real fear of having the spigot turned off by Moscow. Besides, European weakness toward an obnoxious neighbor is to be expected, from Munich in 1938, Budapest in 1956, Prague in 1968, to Belgrade in 1995. It's almost like clockwork.
The United States, on the other hand, has been unwilling to confront Putin head-on for absolutely no good reasons. The U.S. has no dependency on Russia of any sort. Putin has proved to be anything but an ally in the War on Terror. And as for checking China's growing influence ... yeah, China and Russia are all but in lockstep in terms of exercising their veto power in the United Nations, against actions that are of vital interest to the United States.
It may be that George W. Bush has a hard time living down this now infamous evaluation of Vladimir Putin the person, during a summit in June 2001: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul." In terms of sheer idiocy, this one blows away "Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job," by a country mile.
Of course, there's more to it then that. World leaders routinely misjudge their counterparts. (Truman once remarked about Stalin: "I think I can do business with Stalin. He's very honest, but he's also smart as hell.") But the good ones do not vest their nation's best interest in a non-existent personal relationship. But for Bush, a man who has trouble coming to terms with his own errors, this will take some sort of reckoning to fix.
But whether it's Bush, or his successor in the Oval Office, the Russian problem will have to be confronted, soon. Putin clearly has an agenda beyond next year, when he's obligated to leave office per Russia's constitution. He has intimated that he might run for prime minister. And while he has ruled out changing the constitution altogether to allow him to stay on as president, his pals are busy recasting him in a new role as "Father of the Nation."
Either way, he'll win the (re-)election in a landslide, for he is as popular in Russia as Bush is unpopular in the U.S. Emboldened by this, Putin's government will continue the harassment of uncooperative neighbors such as Georgia and the Ukraine, only with more intensity. And Iran will become a bigger flash point even if Iraq's situation stabilizes because the mullahs and Ahmadinejad wouldn't have this much courage without the Kremlin's backing.
The difference between Putin and Hitler, at the moment, is that it's uncertain whether Putin is bent on a destructive war. That said, Putin is potentially more dangerous because of what he has at his disposal: a nuclear arsenal, a substantial war machine, crucial natural resources, and a population that trusts his judgement. As a former KGB operative, Putin's ruthlessness (see: Alexander Litvinenko) cannot be underestimated.
So while we go on our merry way and continue to vest our energies dealing with third-world thugs such as Ahmadinejad and Kim Jung-il, maybe our leaders should devote a little more attention to Putin and his gang, and at least signal some willingness to stand up to them. Otherwise, the West may be repeating a lesson that should've been learned from Munich in 1938.
Britain and her allies might've stopped Hitler short of total war by refusing to flinch and appease. Instead, Neville Chamberlain waved a piece of paper and declared it to be "peace for our time."
Let's not have "I looked the man in the eye and ... was able to get a sense of his soul," etched as the epitaph of this generation.
While the West vacillates about what to do with Iran's nuclear ambitions, it's quietly letting slide a monstrous buildup that may one day prove Tehran's shenanigans seriously inconsequential.
Could it be that we're at 1938 again?
Since Putin took over the presidency of ostensibly democratic new Russia in 2000, he has systematically eliminated his rivals, intimidated his neighbors, dismantled democratic institutions and consolidated his power. At the same time, he has bolstered Russia's international prestige and lifted it out of the economic doldrums that plagued the nation after the collapse of Soviet communism.
If this sounds like history is repeating itself, it just might be.
In 1938, Germany had freed itself from the shackles of the Treaty of Versailles and quickly regained its preeminence among the world's leading nations. Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 promising a reassertion of German nationalism and economic recovery, and in five years, he had mostly achieved those aims.
For that, he was lauded as a hero domestically, even as concentration camps were popping up all over the Reich and one-party rule was becoming more draconian by the day. The Germans, many of them, anyway, were enjoying the Autobahns and the summers on the Baltic, even if their Jewish neighbors were harassed and beaten during Kristallnacht and other activities on the dawn of the Holocaust.
Fast forward to 2007, the Russians likewise are enjoying a recovery of their own. With petrorubles pouring in, thanks to Putin's shrewd exploitation of Russia's rich natural resources, there is no debate that ordinary Russians are better off now than they were in the 1990s. And because of Putin's intransigence in all things that may be construed as pro-American -- Iraq, Iran, defense missiles shield -- he is slowly but surely reclaiming Russia's position as the most serious adversary of the United States.
The West's attitude toward Putin, to date, has been that of tacit tolerance, for various reason. In western Europe, where more than half of its natural gas is supplied by Russia, there is a real fear of having the spigot turned off by Moscow. Besides, European weakness toward an obnoxious neighbor is to be expected, from Munich in 1938, Budapest in 1956, Prague in 1968, to Belgrade in 1995. It's almost like clockwork.
The United States, on the other hand, has been unwilling to confront Putin head-on for absolutely no good reasons. The U.S. has no dependency on Russia of any sort. Putin has proved to be anything but an ally in the War on Terror. And as for checking China's growing influence ... yeah, China and Russia are all but in lockstep in terms of exercising their veto power in the United Nations, against actions that are of vital interest to the United States.
It may be that George W. Bush has a hard time living down this now infamous evaluation of Vladimir Putin the person, during a summit in June 2001: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul." In terms of sheer idiocy, this one blows away "Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job," by a country mile.
Of course, there's more to it then that. World leaders routinely misjudge their counterparts. (Truman once remarked about Stalin: "I think I can do business with Stalin. He's very honest, but he's also smart as hell.") But the good ones do not vest their nation's best interest in a non-existent personal relationship. But for Bush, a man who has trouble coming to terms with his own errors, this will take some sort of reckoning to fix.
But whether it's Bush, or his successor in the Oval Office, the Russian problem will have to be confronted, soon. Putin clearly has an agenda beyond next year, when he's obligated to leave office per Russia's constitution. He has intimated that he might run for prime minister. And while he has ruled out changing the constitution altogether to allow him to stay on as president, his pals are busy recasting him in a new role as "Father of the Nation."
Either way, he'll win the (re-)election in a landslide, for he is as popular in Russia as Bush is unpopular in the U.S. Emboldened by this, Putin's government will continue the harassment of uncooperative neighbors such as Georgia and the Ukraine, only with more intensity. And Iran will become a bigger flash point even if Iraq's situation stabilizes because the mullahs and Ahmadinejad wouldn't have this much courage without the Kremlin's backing.
The difference between Putin and Hitler, at the moment, is that it's uncertain whether Putin is bent on a destructive war. That said, Putin is potentially more dangerous because of what he has at his disposal: a nuclear arsenal, a substantial war machine, crucial natural resources, and a population that trusts his judgement. As a former KGB operative, Putin's ruthlessness (see: Alexander Litvinenko) cannot be underestimated.
So while we go on our merry way and continue to vest our energies dealing with third-world thugs such as Ahmadinejad and Kim Jung-il, maybe our leaders should devote a little more attention to Putin and his gang, and at least signal some willingness to stand up to them. Otherwise, the West may be repeating a lesson that should've been learned from Munich in 1938.
Britain and her allies might've stopped Hitler short of total war by refusing to flinch and appease. Instead, Neville Chamberlain waved a piece of paper and declared it to be "peace for our time."
Let's not have "I looked the man in the eye and ... was able to get a sense of his soul," etched as the epitaph of this generation.
08 November 2007
Rooting Guide ... Part Deux
(From BCS Guru)
OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.
OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.
05 November 2007
The Guru's Rooting Guide
(From BCS Guru)
When the gun goes off at Michigan Stadium around 3:30 p.m. on Nov. 17, it will be the first game to end the 2007 regular season for both teams.
The question is: Will it really mark the start of the 2007 season?
An Ohio State victory will certainly return the Buckeyes to the BCS national championship game, leaving a mad scramble for perhaps half a dozen teams to claim the other spot. The contest will be a multi-media event, involving not only winning games on the field, but stating your case and having allies in the media to state your case for you.
But what if Ohio State loses?
It would be an upset, but hardly a historic one (we've had a few already this season, including one that kicked it off at the Big House). And a Buckeyes loss not only knocks them out of the national title picture, but leaves them out of a Rose Bowl berth as well. So now we'll have two available slots in the title game, and new battle lines will be drawn for the other eight BCS bowl spots.
To help you navigate through the finishing stretch of this turbulent season, the Guru presents the Rooting Guide. Now you will know who your friends and enemies are, and not make the mistake of rooting for the wrong team(s) at the most inopportune time.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Losable game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-2)
National title scenario: Controls its own destiny -- the only team that can say so with confidence. If Ohio State wins its remaining two games (vs. Illinois this week), then it will play for the BCS title for the second straight year.
BCS bowl scenario: No matter what happens, the Buckeyes won't be playing in the Rose Bowl. Win, then it's on to the title game in New Orleans. Lose, Michigan wins the Big Ten and nudges Ohio State to an at-large berth.
Root for: No one.
Root against: No one. It's highly unlikely that Ohio State would stay in the national title game hunt if it loses to Michigan.
2. LSU (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-3); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: The Bayou Bengals have the No. 2 spot for now. But it's conceivable that they would be jumped by an undefeated Kansas or, less likely, by No. 3 Oregon. LSU can use a little bit of insurance.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Arkansas. LSU needs both of those teams to have as good a record as possible to impress both computers and human voters.
Root against: Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The first four are fairly obvious, and the Tigers really don't want to play a 3-loss (or even maybe a 4-loss) Vols in the SEC title game.
3. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (5-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 3, but they're far from one LSU loss to be assured of a BCS title shot. They could jump LSU even if the Tigers win out. And they could be jumped by Kansas even if they win out. Since none of the Ducks' remaining opponents are even ranked, the most they can do is to finish strong and hope for the best.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma.
4. Kansas (9-0)
Losable games: Nov. 10 at Oklahoma State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (8-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Besides Ohio State, Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Of all the contenders, Kansas has the toughest road ahead to remain unbeaten. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss (or two) will make things easier for KU to clinch the Big XII North and gain a BCS bowl invite.
5. Oklahoma (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-3); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take at least two of the top three teams losing to get them into the national championship game. But in this strange season, you never say never.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
6. Missouri (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (9-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: After further review, the Guru decided to put the Tigers back in the national title chase, even if their chances are slim to none. In this crazy season, if two of the top three teams lose down the stretch, Mizzou will have a shot if it wins out.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Go 3-0 the rest of the regular season, a BCS bowl berth is probably assured. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed.
Root for: Oklahoma. Just like in Kansas' case, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia.
Later this week, the Guru will break down the chances for the rest of the BCS bowl contenders.
When the gun goes off at Michigan Stadium around 3:30 p.m. on Nov. 17, it will be the first game to end the 2007 regular season for both teams.
The question is: Will it really mark the start of the 2007 season?
An Ohio State victory will certainly return the Buckeyes to the BCS national championship game, leaving a mad scramble for perhaps half a dozen teams to claim the other spot. The contest will be a multi-media event, involving not only winning games on the field, but stating your case and having allies in the media to state your case for you.
But what if Ohio State loses?
It would be an upset, but hardly a historic one (we've had a few already this season, including one that kicked it off at the Big House). And a Buckeyes loss not only knocks them out of the national title picture, but leaves them out of a Rose Bowl berth as well. So now we'll have two available slots in the title game, and new battle lines will be drawn for the other eight BCS bowl spots.
To help you navigate through the finishing stretch of this turbulent season, the Guru presents the Rooting Guide. Now you will know who your friends and enemies are, and not make the mistake of rooting for the wrong team(s) at the most inopportune time.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Losable game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-2)
National title scenario: Controls its own destiny -- the only team that can say so with confidence. If Ohio State wins its remaining two games (vs. Illinois this week), then it will play for the BCS title for the second straight year.
BCS bowl scenario: No matter what happens, the Buckeyes won't be playing in the Rose Bowl. Win, then it's on to the title game in New Orleans. Lose, Michigan wins the Big Ten and nudges Ohio State to an at-large berth.
Root for: No one.
Root against: No one. It's highly unlikely that Ohio State would stay in the national title game hunt if it loses to Michigan.
2. LSU (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-3); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: The Bayou Bengals have the No. 2 spot for now. But it's conceivable that they would be jumped by an undefeated Kansas or, less likely, by No. 3 Oregon. LSU can use a little bit of insurance.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Arkansas. LSU needs both of those teams to have as good a record as possible to impress both computers and human voters.
Root against: Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The first four are fairly obvious, and the Tigers really don't want to play a 3-loss (or even maybe a 4-loss) Vols in the SEC title game.
3. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (5-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 3, but they're far from one LSU loss to be assured of a BCS title shot. They could jump LSU even if the Tigers win out. And they could be jumped by Kansas even if they win out. Since none of the Ducks' remaining opponents are even ranked, the most they can do is to finish strong and hope for the best.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma.
4. Kansas (9-0)
Losable games: Nov. 10 at Oklahoma State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (8-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Besides Ohio State, Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Of all the contenders, Kansas has the toughest road ahead to remain unbeaten. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss (or two) will make things easier for KU to clinch the Big XII North and gain a BCS bowl invite.
5. Oklahoma (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-3); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take at least two of the top three teams losing to get them into the national championship game. But in this strange season, you never say never.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
6. Missouri (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (9-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: After further review, the Guru decided to put the Tigers back in the national title chase, even if their chances are slim to none. In this crazy season, if two of the top three teams lose down the stretch, Mizzou will have a shot if it wins out.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Go 3-0 the rest of the regular season, a BCS bowl berth is probably assured. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed.
Root for: Oklahoma. Just like in Kansas' case, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia.
Later this week, the Guru will break down the chances for the rest of the BCS bowl contenders.
04 November 2007
The Plot Thickens
(From BCS Guru)
As expected, LSU and Oregon rose to Nos. 2 and 3, respectively in this week's BCS standings. Now, the mad dash to the finish begins for these two one-loss teams, trying to get that potential date with No. 1 Ohio State in New Orleans.
The Guru has added a new feature to the standings, now teams in contention for the national championship game, as well as BCS bowl games, are shaded in different colors. Later this week, the Guru will also offer a "Rooting Guide," which is a must-read for anybody with a team playing for either the BCS title or a BCS bowl berth.
As expected, LSU and Oregon rose to Nos. 2 and 3, respectively in this week's BCS standings. Now, the mad dash to the finish begins for these two one-loss teams, trying to get that potential date with No. 1 Ohio State in New Orleans.
The Guru has added a new feature to the standings, now teams in contention for the national championship game, as well as BCS bowl games, are shaded in different colors. Later this week, the Guru will also offer a "Rooting Guide," which is a must-read for anybody with a team playing for either the BCS title or a BCS bowl berth.
03 November 2007
The Curse of No. 2
(From BCS Guru)
For the third times this season, the second-ranked team in the BCS standings -- official or otherwise -- bit the dust. What Boston College's loss leaves us is a mad scramble by a group of one-loss teams for the coveted No. 2 spot, behind undefeated Ohio State.
The Guru projects that LSU will reclaim this position after a narrow victory over Alabama, with a reasonable lead over Oregon at No. 3. After that, there will be a significant dropoff to No. 4 Kansas, the only other BCS conference team without a loss, and No. 5 Oklahoma.
The Big Six conferences also will be scrambling for at-large berths. With Hawai'i still in striking distance for a guaranteed bid, that means three or four of these conferences will obtain the lucrative second bid. Each conference has at least two teams in the top 15, with the Big XII having three teams in the Top 10.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Oregon, 4. Kansas, 5. Oklahoma, 6. West Virginia, 7. Arizona State, 8. Missouri, 9. Boston College, 10. Georgia, 11. Virginia Tech, 12. Michigan, 13. Connecticut, 14. Hawai'i, 15. USC.
For the third times this season, the second-ranked team in the BCS standings -- official or otherwise -- bit the dust. What Boston College's loss leaves us is a mad scramble by a group of one-loss teams for the coveted No. 2 spot, behind undefeated Ohio State.
The Guru projects that LSU will reclaim this position after a narrow victory over Alabama, with a reasonable lead over Oregon at No. 3. After that, there will be a significant dropoff to No. 4 Kansas, the only other BCS conference team without a loss, and No. 5 Oklahoma.
The Big Six conferences also will be scrambling for at-large berths. With Hawai'i still in striking distance for a guaranteed bid, that means three or four of these conferences will obtain the lucrative second bid. Each conference has at least two teams in the top 15, with the Big XII having three teams in the Top 10.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Oregon, 4. Kansas, 5. Oklahoma, 6. West Virginia, 7. Arizona State, 8. Missouri, 9. Boston College, 10. Georgia, 11. Virginia Tech, 12. Michigan, 13. Connecticut, 14. Hawai'i, 15. USC.
01 November 2007
Easy Does It
(From BCS Guru)
With five weeks still left in this amazingly combustible 2007 season, the gnashing of the teeth has already started. In three weeks, one of the two BCS championship spots may be claimed and there's not a damn thing anybody can do anything about it.
If you're unhappy with Boston College possibly playing for the national title, then you should be mad as hell that Ohio State appears to be a mortal lock for a return visit to the BCS championship game.
Yep, with only three games remaining on their schedule, the Buckeyes just need to stay unbeaten and then wait out 50 days to redeem themselves for the title game flop a year ago against Florida.
The question is: Do they deserve to be in New Orleans?
Ohio State is 9-0, having won every game by at least a touchdown. The Buckeyes' stout defense has surrendered more than 10 points just once in nine games. They trailed at the half only once and were never behind in the fourth quarter in any of their games.
So they should be No. 1, right?
Nope. Not if you looked at whom they have beaten. Right now, the reason that they're atop the BCS standings has more to do with the gray helmets, scarlet uniforms and the ghost of Woody Hayes than anything else.
Ohio State has run roughshod through unarguably the weakest of the Big Six BCS conferences. According to the rankings of the six BCS computers, this is the mean score for each conference:
1. SEC -- 1.17
2. Pac-10 -- 2.83
3. ACC -- 3.83
4. Big XII -- 3.83
5. Big East -- 4.17
6. Big Ten -- 5.00
While it should surprise no one that the SEC and the Pac-10 are by far the toughest conferences, what's even more revealing is by how much the Big Ten trails the other conferences. Four of the six computers rank the Big Ten dead last among the BCS conferences.
Besides playing in a weak conference, Ohio State's non-conference schedule is also a farce. The Buckeyes beat two MAC teams -- Akron (3-5) and Kent State (3-6), the Pac-10's last-place team Washington (2-6) and I-AA Youngstown State (5-4). Ohio State's strength of schedule rating ranges from a best of 43 to a worst of 103 among 119 Division I-A teams.
Of the four unbeaten BCS conference teams, only Kansas's schedule is as forgiving as Ohio State's. Boston College and Arizona State have played -- and defeated -- far better competition. Among one-loss teams, LSU and Oregon have traveled a much more difficult road than Ohio State did.
The computers seem to get that, as Ohio State is far from a consensus No. 1. But the human voters have proved to be suckers for the sweater vest mystique. The Buckeyes received all but four of the 60 first-place votes in the coaches poll and were the unanimous No. 1 in the latest Harris poll.
At this point of the season, the human voters are unlikely to bump down the Buckeyes without them losing a game. And since they account for two-thirds of the BCS total, you can write them into the title game barring a little Lloyd Carr magic on Nov. 17 at the Big House.
But don't hold your breath.
This Week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Arizona State at Oregon -- It would be chic to say that this is for the Pac-10 championship. And it would be wrong -- though the winner of this game will have the inside track to no worse than a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA, which will host both teams later, has a chance to play the spoiler's role.
4-Star: LSU at Alabama -- This game will be even better next year when it comes to Baton Rouge. For now, Les Miles will have an opportunity to emerge from Nick Saban's considerable shadow. A loss not only knocks the Bayou Bengals out of national championship contention, it might even deny them a place in the SEC title game.
3-Star: Florida State at Boston College -- The Eagles have a pretty difficult finishing stretch, but this game shouldn't give them too much trouble. The Seminoles are a program at a crossroads, with a legendary coach refusing to step aside as everything crumbles around him. Matt Ryan will use this to polish his Heisman resume.
2-Star: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- If Ohio State is a paper tiger, then Wisconsin is a paper Siamese. The Badgers are just another one of the Big Ten pretenders, having feasted on feeble competition to get their 7-2 record. The Buckeyes seem set to win their 20th straight conference game, which would set a Big Ten record.
1-Star: Texas A&M at Oklahoma -- The Sooners' slim hopes of reaching the title game rest with winning their remaining games, as well as a strong record for Kansas or Missouri, whichever makes it to the Big XII title game -- and lots of other teams losing. If this sounds like too much needs to happen for OU, it is.
With five weeks still left in this amazingly combustible 2007 season, the gnashing of the teeth has already started. In three weeks, one of the two BCS championship spots may be claimed and there's not a damn thing anybody can do anything about it.
If you're unhappy with Boston College possibly playing for the national title, then you should be mad as hell that Ohio State appears to be a mortal lock for a return visit to the BCS championship game.
Yep, with only three games remaining on their schedule, the Buckeyes just need to stay unbeaten and then wait out 50 days to redeem themselves for the title game flop a year ago against Florida.
The question is: Do they deserve to be in New Orleans?
Ohio State is 9-0, having won every game by at least a touchdown. The Buckeyes' stout defense has surrendered more than 10 points just once in nine games. They trailed at the half only once and were never behind in the fourth quarter in any of their games.
So they should be No. 1, right?
Nope. Not if you looked at whom they have beaten. Right now, the reason that they're atop the BCS standings has more to do with the gray helmets, scarlet uniforms and the ghost of Woody Hayes than anything else.
Ohio State has run roughshod through unarguably the weakest of the Big Six BCS conferences. According to the rankings of the six BCS computers, this is the mean score for each conference:
1. SEC -- 1.17
2. Pac-10 -- 2.83
3. ACC -- 3.83
4. Big XII -- 3.83
5. Big East -- 4.17
6. Big Ten -- 5.00
While it should surprise no one that the SEC and the Pac-10 are by far the toughest conferences, what's even more revealing is by how much the Big Ten trails the other conferences. Four of the six computers rank the Big Ten dead last among the BCS conferences.
Besides playing in a weak conference, Ohio State's non-conference schedule is also a farce. The Buckeyes beat two MAC teams -- Akron (3-5) and Kent State (3-6), the Pac-10's last-place team Washington (2-6) and I-AA Youngstown State (5-4). Ohio State's strength of schedule rating ranges from a best of 43 to a worst of 103 among 119 Division I-A teams.
Of the four unbeaten BCS conference teams, only Kansas's schedule is as forgiving as Ohio State's. Boston College and Arizona State have played -- and defeated -- far better competition. Among one-loss teams, LSU and Oregon have traveled a much more difficult road than Ohio State did.
The computers seem to get that, as Ohio State is far from a consensus No. 1. But the human voters have proved to be suckers for the sweater vest mystique. The Buckeyes received all but four of the 60 first-place votes in the coaches poll and were the unanimous No. 1 in the latest Harris poll.
At this point of the season, the human voters are unlikely to bump down the Buckeyes without them losing a game. And since they account for two-thirds of the BCS total, you can write them into the title game barring a little Lloyd Carr magic on Nov. 17 at the Big House.
But don't hold your breath.
This Week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Arizona State at Oregon -- It would be chic to say that this is for the Pac-10 championship. And it would be wrong -- though the winner of this game will have the inside track to no worse than a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA, which will host both teams later, has a chance to play the spoiler's role.
4-Star: LSU at Alabama -- This game will be even better next year when it comes to Baton Rouge. For now, Les Miles will have an opportunity to emerge from Nick Saban's considerable shadow. A loss not only knocks the Bayou Bengals out of national championship contention, it might even deny them a place in the SEC title game.
3-Star: Florida State at Boston College -- The Eagles have a pretty difficult finishing stretch, but this game shouldn't give them too much trouble. The Seminoles are a program at a crossroads, with a legendary coach refusing to step aside as everything crumbles around him. Matt Ryan will use this to polish his Heisman resume.
2-Star: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- If Ohio State is a paper tiger, then Wisconsin is a paper Siamese. The Badgers are just another one of the Big Ten pretenders, having feasted on feeble competition to get their 7-2 record. The Buckeyes seem set to win their 20th straight conference game, which would set a Big Ten record.
1-Star: Texas A&M at Oklahoma -- The Sooners' slim hopes of reaching the title game rest with winning their remaining games, as well as a strong record for Kansas or Missouri, whichever makes it to the Big XII title game -- and lots of other teams losing. If this sounds like too much needs to happen for OU, it is.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)