22 November 2008

Tech Bubble Burst Roils BCS Market

(From BCS Guru)

Well, the BCS may have a crisis that mirrors the one in the real world.

It was so easy last week that the Guru just knew there will be ample payback this time. If the caveman could do the projections last week, then this week's would require the combined brain power of Albert Einstein, Werner von Braun and Stephen Hawking, not to mention the psychoanalytic mind of Freud. This might be a bit out of the realm for a chump like me.

But I'll try anyway.

First thing first, we know two things for sure: Penn State is headed to the Rose Bowl, becoming the first team to clinch a BCS berth this season. Utah followed suit by completing a 12-0 season, becoming the first non-BCS team to win multiple BCS bowl berths.

The rest is up in the air.

Oklahoma's 65-21 annihilation of No. 2 Texas Tech sets up a near certainty of the BCS standings being employed to break a three-way tie in the Big 12 South - OU still must win at Oklahoma State next week, though. If the Sooners stumble, then the Red Raiders win the Big 12 South if they can handle Baylor at home.

Take a deep breath and follow this one here: Texas can't win the Big 12 South on anything but the tiebreaker, and Oklahoma's blowout win made that a little more difficult. If the Longhorns don't get to play in the Big 12 title game, they still may play in the BCS title game. And even if they don't play in the BCS title game, they can still win the national championship - by winning the Fiesta Bowl and claiming the AP crown.

The door is left slightly ajar for USC as well - ironically because Oregon State may keep the Trojans out of the Rose Bowl. If they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, there is a chance for the Trojans to win the AP title - that chance doesn't exist if they face Penn State in Pasadena. In any event, there is virtually no chance for USC to play in the BCS championship game.

Alabama will ascend to No. 1 in the BCS standings, without a doubt. After the Tide, I expect Oklahoma to narrowly edge Texas for the No. 2 spot this week. The voters will be very torn about where to place the 'Horns and Sooners, even though Texas did defeat Oklahoma on a neutral field back in October. The 65 points OU hung on Texas Tech would be difficult to ignore as well.

Adding to the intrigue is that Texas coach Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches poll but OU coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots until the final regular-season poll, meaning that whatever Brown puts on his ballot will affect the tiebreaker - and it will stay a secret as well.

Here's the Guru's projections for the Week 13 BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. Georgia, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. Missouri, 14. Texas Christian, 15. Cincinnati.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think Penn State will pass Texas Tech.