(From RealClearPolitics)
Will Barack Obama take it upon himself to end the National Football League impasse?
For reasons both atmospheric and economic, he should at least think about it.
With Monday's ruling from the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that keeps the owners' lockout intact, there is a possibility that both sides will dig in, thus putting the upcoming season in peril. More than two months into the lockout and just two months from the scheduled start of training camp, the NFL is already way behind in preparing for the upcoming season.
Any lost games -- even preseason ones -- have an economic cost to the teams and the cities they do business in. The NFL Players Association estimated that each NFL city stands to lose $160 million over the course of the season, or $16 million per home game. Though these figures may be greatly exaggerated (the most conservative estimate is at $35 million per city for the season), there is no doubt that millions of dollars and thousands of jobs will be lost should the games be canceled.
A number of NFL teams, the Miami Dolphins among them, have already drastically reduced their staff or cut pay during the lockout. Keep in mind that each team and its host city hire a large number of people, from full-time employees who work in custodial, food service and media relations at the training facilities, to contract workers who sell souvenirs, clean up and provide guest services at stadiums. Not to mention thousands of cops and firefighters who depend on overtime income from working on game days.
The economy and jobs. Now do they sound like something President Obama should worry about? Left unmanaged, the damage from a lost season may very well negatively affect his re-election chances in 2012.
In 2008, Obama won 365 electoral votes, comfortably beating John McCain for the presidency. But since the Democrats' 2010 midterm election wipeout, combined with the reallocation of electoral votes following the 2010 Census, his prospects have arguably worsened already. And that doesn't even take into account the bleak employment picture that has persistently dogged his presidency.
Six states, each home to at least one NFL franchise, may just hold the key to his bid for a second term.
These six (North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado) all went for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, and they were also the states where Obama's winning margins were the smallest in 2008, ranging from 0.3 percent in North Carolina to 8.9 percent in Colorado.
Nine NFL teams reside in these six states (the Washington Redskins are headquartered in Ashburn, Va.). And if you take the NFLPA's estimates at face value, a whopping $1.44 billion worth of economic activity, not to mention tens of thousands of jobs, may be lost in these states from a canceled season.
If Obama should lose all six states (not a stretch, since neither John Kerry nor Al Gore carried any of them), his electoral vote total would plummet from a census-adjusted 359 to 264 -- the difference between winning the future and winning funds for a presidential library.
Moreover, even states the president won more comfortably in 2008 may be in play in 2012 after the GOP landslide of 2010. A total of 40 electoral votes could be up for grabs in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- home to the Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Given this landscape, should the current impasse persist, it may behoove Obama to pick up the phone and -- to paraphrase the 44th president himself when he spoke of college football's lack of a playoff -- "throw my weight around a little bit." Obama can call any number of people, and it's reasonable to surmise that he may have DeMaurice Smith's number on his BlackBerry.
It's not that the head of the NFLPA contributed to the Obama campaign (he did), it's that "De" Smith was elected to head the players' union last year on the strength of his legal and political connections. He was largely unknown by the players he sought to lead, but Smith is a former colleague of Obama confidant and U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, and he's a former partner at Patton Boggs, a powerhouse law firm with an extensive lobbyist operation and strong ties to the Democratic Party. Three months ago, Patton Boggs adviser Frank Wisner was sent to Egypt as Obama's personal envoy to deal with Hosni Mubarak.
Professional sports are hardly on the same level as Middle East peace, but Obama can pick up the phone and lean on another Patton Boggs man to break the impasse in pro football. That isn't always enough, even for a president of the United States. Bill Clinton learned that lesson when he tried unsuccessfully to mediate the baseball strike of 1994-1995. But voters gave Clinton credit for trying.
If Obama does call and push him to make a deal, even the heretofore stubborn Smith will have incentives to comply. After his grand strategy of litigating instead of negotiating was shredded by the 8th Circuit, Smith doesn't have a lot of options left. Given his track record, it's doubtful that he'd be an NFL lifer, as his predecessor Gene Upshaw was. So his best course of action might be to cut a deal quickly, proclaim it was done in the interest of the fans, tell the players it was all worth it, before exiting gracefully.
Perhaps just in time to land a gig on Obama's reelection campaign.
Showing posts with label RealClearPolitics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RealClearPolitics. Show all posts
25 February 2009
Erecting the Great (Pay) Wall for Newspapers
(From RealClearPolitics - Media Watch)
Let's face it, pay-per-view will be returning to newspaper web sites with a vengeance in the near future. If not by the second half of this year, definitely 2010. Ad revenue is way down - for both print and online - and the recession isn't going anywhere soon.
By now, everyone's shared their own ideas about how to rescue the business. But lately, it's become apparent that we've run out of new thoughts. Most everyone has returned to some variation of a pay scheme.
No one except the Christian Science Monitor dares to do the obvious, which is to shut down the print edition altogether. Newspapers are still too afraid to embrace the new world by leaving the "paper" part of their legacy behind. Since that's the case, a paywall seems to be the only thing that might keep more newspapers from going out of business, for now.
But if we must erect a paywall, let's not make it just any wall. Let's build a Great (pay) Wall that's strong enough to keep the barbarians at bay.
Let's start by creating a cooperative, managed by the NAA (Newspaper Association of America). Every paper that's part of the NAA may participate in this cooperative, which will serve as the clearinghouse for the new great paywall.
Then, with ample warning to the readers, put up the wall on September 1. Why September 1? Because the summer is over, kids are back in school and adults are back at their computer terminals. But more important, it's the dawn of the football season, when web traffic typically spikes for news sites.
Once the wall is up, every newspaper web site is accessible only to paid subscribers. Each paper may decide to allow some free content daily, but it must be extremely limited. The index page for every paper's site should be so full of teasers on the good stuff that a reader just can't help himself but to pay to see what he's missing.
So how do you subscribe? There would be two kinds of subscribers. Anyone who subscribes to the print edition of any paper would be granted a complimentary online subscription. If you don't want to subscribe to your local paper - or any paper, for that matter - you may become an online-only subscriber, at say, $50 a year for the privilege.
Your unique username and password would allow you access to every newspaper site that's part of this cooperative. But here's one catch - you could only access it from one computer at a time (like how an AOL account works) so you won't be so inclined to share your account with dozens of your buddies. Educational institutions and large companies may purchase corporate accounts so that individuals using school or company terminals will be able to bypass the wall.
So how would the money be distributed? Papers get to keep all of the print subscriber money, so it makes sense for individual papers to work to drive up circulation. As for the online-only subscribers, half of the money would be equally divided among all members (socialism), the other half would be distributed according to web site traffic (capitalism), so papers would have an incentive to drive in more traffic to their own sites.
Let's do a little, and very crude, math. According to the NAA, its 2,000 member sites average about 75 million unique visitors. About 25 million already subscribe to a paper, so leave them out. If we may extract 50 bucks out of the rest of the 50 million heretofore freeloaders, that's $2.5 billion. Counting conservatively, at $1 billion, that means under the 50-50 scheme, the smallest of the papers would make about $250,000 annually. The New York Times, on the other hand, would make about $90 million, Wall Street Journal $33.5 million, San Francisco Chronicle, $38 million.
This model may tide the papers over the tough times until they figure out just what needs to be done for long-term survival. And there are challenges to implement this scheme: The Justice Department may have to sign off on the cooperative. There may be fierce pushback initially by the consumers. An independent auditor would be required to referee disputes.
And finally, the newspaper business has to be ready for the potential that this concept may be more like the Berlin Wall than the Great Wall of China - merely a flawed stop-gap rather than something that brings about stability and longevity. At some point in the future, the papers must accept the new reality and act accordingly.
That starts with stopping the presses.
Let's face it, pay-per-view will be returning to newspaper web sites with a vengeance in the near future. If not by the second half of this year, definitely 2010. Ad revenue is way down - for both print and online - and the recession isn't going anywhere soon.
By now, everyone's shared their own ideas about how to rescue the business. But lately, it's become apparent that we've run out of new thoughts. Most everyone has returned to some variation of a pay scheme.
No one except the Christian Science Monitor dares to do the obvious, which is to shut down the print edition altogether. Newspapers are still too afraid to embrace the new world by leaving the "paper" part of their legacy behind. Since that's the case, a paywall seems to be the only thing that might keep more newspapers from going out of business, for now.
But if we must erect a paywall, let's not make it just any wall. Let's build a Great (pay) Wall that's strong enough to keep the barbarians at bay.
Let's start by creating a cooperative, managed by the NAA (Newspaper Association of America). Every paper that's part of the NAA may participate in this cooperative, which will serve as the clearinghouse for the new great paywall.
Then, with ample warning to the readers, put up the wall on September 1. Why September 1? Because the summer is over, kids are back in school and adults are back at their computer terminals. But more important, it's the dawn of the football season, when web traffic typically spikes for news sites.
Once the wall is up, every newspaper web site is accessible only to paid subscribers. Each paper may decide to allow some free content daily, but it must be extremely limited. The index page for every paper's site should be so full of teasers on the good stuff that a reader just can't help himself but to pay to see what he's missing.
So how do you subscribe? There would be two kinds of subscribers. Anyone who subscribes to the print edition of any paper would be granted a complimentary online subscription. If you don't want to subscribe to your local paper - or any paper, for that matter - you may become an online-only subscriber, at say, $50 a year for the privilege.
Your unique username and password would allow you access to every newspaper site that's part of this cooperative. But here's one catch - you could only access it from one computer at a time (like how an AOL account works) so you won't be so inclined to share your account with dozens of your buddies. Educational institutions and large companies may purchase corporate accounts so that individuals using school or company terminals will be able to bypass the wall.
So how would the money be distributed? Papers get to keep all of the print subscriber money, so it makes sense for individual papers to work to drive up circulation. As for the online-only subscribers, half of the money would be equally divided among all members (socialism), the other half would be distributed according to web site traffic (capitalism), so papers would have an incentive to drive in more traffic to their own sites.
Let's do a little, and very crude, math. According to the NAA, its 2,000 member sites average about 75 million unique visitors. About 25 million already subscribe to a paper, so leave them out. If we may extract 50 bucks out of the rest of the 50 million heretofore freeloaders, that's $2.5 billion. Counting conservatively, at $1 billion, that means under the 50-50 scheme, the smallest of the papers would make about $250,000 annually. The New York Times, on the other hand, would make about $90 million, Wall Street Journal $33.5 million, San Francisco Chronicle, $38 million.
This model may tide the papers over the tough times until they figure out just what needs to be done for long-term survival. And there are challenges to implement this scheme: The Justice Department may have to sign off on the cooperative. There may be fierce pushback initially by the consumers. An independent auditor would be required to referee disputes.
And finally, the newspaper business has to be ready for the potential that this concept may be more like the Berlin Wall than the Great Wall of China - merely a flawed stop-gap rather than something that brings about stability and longevity. At some point in the future, the papers must accept the new reality and act accordingly.
That starts with stopping the presses.
24 February 2009
Top 10 Newspapers in Trouble
(From RealClearPolitics - Media Watch)
The Atlantic stirred the pot two months ago with a sensational "End Times" piece that questioned the continued existence of the New York Times. While the Grey Lady has stayed in the news with all her financial woes, other papers are suffering silently, with certain death just around the corner for some.
The Christian Science Monitor announced that it was abandoning its print edition back in October last year, and then the avalanche came. The Tribune Co. was the first to file for bankruptcy protection, and then the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Journal Register and Philadelphia Newspapers followed suit. In the meantime, Gannett and Media News announced unpaid furlough programs, and the Los Angeles Times was but one of many to announce yet another round of massive newsroom cuts.
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Rocky Mountain News and Tucson Citizen all might not see April Fools Day. Then yesterday, the San Francisco Chronicle hinted that it could be going away soon as well. Even the Washington Post, one of the most stable papers, reported a 77% drop in earnings in the fourth quarter of 2008. In todays gloomy newspaper landscape, no one is safe.
With that in mind, we present you with the top 10 major metro newspapers in trouble.
No. 10 New York Daily News
The Atlantic stirred the pot two months ago with a sensational "End Times" piece that questioned the continued existence of the New York Times. While the Grey Lady has stayed in the news with all her financial woes, other papers are suffering silently, with certain death just around the corner for some.
The Christian Science Monitor announced that it was abandoning its print edition back in October last year, and then the avalanche came. The Tribune Co. was the first to file for bankruptcy protection, and then the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Journal Register and Philadelphia Newspapers followed suit. In the meantime, Gannett and Media News announced unpaid furlough programs, and the Los Angeles Times was but one of many to announce yet another round of massive newsroom cuts.
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Rocky Mountain News and Tucson Citizen all might not see April Fools Day. Then yesterday, the San Francisco Chronicle hinted that it could be going away soon as well. Even the Washington Post, one of the most stable papers, reported a 77% drop in earnings in the fourth quarter of 2008. In todays gloomy newspaper landscape, no one is safe.
With that in mind, we present you with the top 10 major metro newspapers in trouble.
No. 10 New York Daily News
22 December 2008
New Attraction: Media Watch
Dear Readers:
Well, I just can't help myself. I have started "Media Watch" - a new blog for RealClearPolitics.
This won't come as much of a surprise. I'm still very engaged in and passionate about the media business, particularly the fate of the newspapers. This new blog will be refreshed daily with the latest news and opinions about the world of media.
I won't be mirroring every post here at the Zoo, so please be sure to check the blog at RealClearPolitics. But here's the first post:
=====
Well, I just can't help myself. I have started "Media Watch" - a new blog for RealClearPolitics.
This won't come as much of a surprise. I'm still very engaged in and passionate about the media business, particularly the fate of the newspapers. This new blog will be refreshed daily with the latest news and opinions about the world of media.
I won't be mirroring every post here at the Zoo, so please be sure to check the blog at RealClearPolitics. But here's the first post:
=====
The newspaper business is in its death throes, apparently. But that hardly means journalism is dead.
The media industry is evolving at a breakneck pace in the opening stanza of the 21st century - and instead of just reporting the news, the media frequently find themselves in the news. Since we here at Real Clear Politics follow the news, it's become imperative for us to also keep up with the people who bring us the news.
A veteran newspaperman-cum-digital media maven, I relished this challenge. I got my first job as a paperboy at the age of 15 and worked up the newspaper food chain from there. In my 20 years as a journalist, I put in time both as an editor and a writer, covering diverse events ranging from the Super Bowl to Hong Kong's change of ownership.
Viewing the newspaper business as a sinking ship, I jumped into the high seas and surfed for the web. Three years ago I began a new life as the BCS Guru and six months ago I found my kindred spirits at Real Clear Politics and helped start our new international politics and news site Real Clear World.
Everyday, you'll find a little bit of something here covering the media - from the journalism realm to the business end. Your interest is most welcome, as are comments and tips. You may contact me at sam@realclearworld.com.
- Samuel Chi, December 2008
19 December 2008
Now It's Just the 'News' Business
(From RealClearPolitics)
At least somebody in Detroit is thinking outside of the box.
An industry seemingly headed for inevitable collapse at last thought of something innovative that just might bring about survival, and maybe even future prosperity.
We're talking about the newspaper business, of course.
While the Big Three kept their palms up in Washington, waiting for a handout, Detroit's two newspapers, the Free Press and News, announced on Tuesday a dramatic change to the way they operate. By next spring, the Detroit newspapers will become a mostly online entity.
In short, they're taking the paper out of newspaper.
And why not?
Newspapers across America are on their deathbeds. Readership is sagging. Newsrooms are shrinking. Layoffs are a quarterly occurrence. The Star-Ledger barely averted going out of business altogether. The Tribune Company, owner of both the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, just filed for bankruptcy. Even the venerable Grey Lady put her building on the block to raise funds.
And there are no bailouts coming.
Against this backdrop, the Detroit papers thought of trying something else. Instead of slash and burn and send their talented journalists home to collect unemployment, they decided to get out of the trucking business.
The newspaper business, first and foremost, should be about news gathering and disseminating information. But over time, it has been held hostage by things and people that have nothing to do with its primary functions. And it's the cost of funding for the paper, newsprint, trucks, truck drivers, circulation managers and the buildings that house them that has newspapers over a barrel. Not the cost of paying for the journalists and gathering news.
Full disclosure, I'm a newspaper guy but I also have been around newspapers in many different capacities. My first job was as a paperboy for the Ann Arbor News. My second as a tier for the L.A. Times, one of the teenagers who bundle together the humongous Sunday papers for delivery. I also drove a truck and worked as a telemarketer for the Times.
All that was before I got into the newsroom and became one of the people who actually put out the paper.
Six months after I began working for the San Francisco Examiner as an editor, the two San Francisco papers went on strike. It wasn't because we were unhappy with our contract, I'd understand if you didn't shed a tear for our packages that included five weeks of vacation, fabulous medical coverage, annual non-merit based raises and 37 ½-hour work weeks (it's like working in France without the baguettes!).
We were out on the street because the truck drivers and their union Teamsters - wanted to be paid near six-figure salaries. And our guild had to aid and abet the extortion, to our own detriment.
That was 1994.
In my nearly two decades inside the newsroom it had become obvious that the tail was wagging the dog violently but the dog kept barking for the wrong reasons. Instead of dumping all the peripheral stuff that was sinking a dysfunctional business model, the knee-jerk reaction had always been to get rid of the people that gave newspapers their stature, their voice, their raison d etre.
Until Tuesday.
The Detroit papers won't be the first one to go mostly paperless, the Christian Science Monitor did so less than two months ago - but they're the first major U.S. metro dailies to do so. By reducing daily printings of the papers and cutting deliveries to three days a week, the papers hope to avert a massive newsroom bloodletting.
"We don't think it's sustainable anymore to put two newspapers out," said Dave Hunke, CEO of the Detroit Media Partnership, "drive in excess of 300,000 miles a night delivering newspapers every day of the week and keep our pricing where it is. ... If we did that, we would be slashing content and never take a step forward toward advancing our digital initiatives."
A friend who attended that Tuesday meeting in the Free Press newsroom said the reaction from the announcement was mostly positive. Sure, it meant everybody in the room kept their jobs for the time being. But generally, they applauded management for actually drawing up a reasonable plan.
"It might be risky," he said, while requesting anonymity. "But at least they're looking to the future instead of just doing what everyone else is doing, which is cutting staff. Maybe this will work, maybe not. If it does it may be a breakthrough for the newspaper business."
Or, from now on, just the "news" business.
At least somebody in Detroit is thinking outside of the box.
An industry seemingly headed for inevitable collapse at last thought of something innovative that just might bring about survival, and maybe even future prosperity.
We're talking about the newspaper business, of course.
While the Big Three kept their palms up in Washington, waiting for a handout, Detroit's two newspapers, the Free Press and News, announced on Tuesday a dramatic change to the way they operate. By next spring, the Detroit newspapers will become a mostly online entity.
In short, they're taking the paper out of newspaper.
And why not?
Newspapers across America are on their deathbeds. Readership is sagging. Newsrooms are shrinking. Layoffs are a quarterly occurrence. The Star-Ledger barely averted going out of business altogether. The Tribune Company, owner of both the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, just filed for bankruptcy. Even the venerable Grey Lady put her building on the block to raise funds.
And there are no bailouts coming.
Against this backdrop, the Detroit papers thought of trying something else. Instead of slash and burn and send their talented journalists home to collect unemployment, they decided to get out of the trucking business.
The newspaper business, first and foremost, should be about news gathering and disseminating information. But over time, it has been held hostage by things and people that have nothing to do with its primary functions. And it's the cost of funding for the paper, newsprint, trucks, truck drivers, circulation managers and the buildings that house them that has newspapers over a barrel. Not the cost of paying for the journalists and gathering news.
Full disclosure, I'm a newspaper guy but I also have been around newspapers in many different capacities. My first job was as a paperboy for the Ann Arbor News. My second as a tier for the L.A. Times, one of the teenagers who bundle together the humongous Sunday papers for delivery. I also drove a truck and worked as a telemarketer for the Times.
All that was before I got into the newsroom and became one of the people who actually put out the paper.
Six months after I began working for the San Francisco Examiner as an editor, the two San Francisco papers went on strike. It wasn't because we were unhappy with our contract, I'd understand if you didn't shed a tear for our packages that included five weeks of vacation, fabulous medical coverage, annual non-merit based raises and 37 ½-hour work weeks (it's like working in France without the baguettes!).
We were out on the street because the truck drivers and their union Teamsters - wanted to be paid near six-figure salaries. And our guild had to aid and abet the extortion, to our own detriment.
That was 1994.
In my nearly two decades inside the newsroom it had become obvious that the tail was wagging the dog violently but the dog kept barking for the wrong reasons. Instead of dumping all the peripheral stuff that was sinking a dysfunctional business model, the knee-jerk reaction had always been to get rid of the people that gave newspapers their stature, their voice, their raison d etre.
Until Tuesday.
The Detroit papers won't be the first one to go mostly paperless, the Christian Science Monitor did so less than two months ago - but they're the first major U.S. metro dailies to do so. By reducing daily printings of the papers and cutting deliveries to three days a week, the papers hope to avert a massive newsroom bloodletting.
"We don't think it's sustainable anymore to put two newspapers out," said Dave Hunke, CEO of the Detroit Media Partnership, "drive in excess of 300,000 miles a night delivering newspapers every day of the week and keep our pricing where it is. ... If we did that, we would be slashing content and never take a step forward toward advancing our digital initiatives."
A friend who attended that Tuesday meeting in the Free Press newsroom said the reaction from the announcement was mostly positive. Sure, it meant everybody in the room kept their jobs for the time being. But generally, they applauded management for actually drawing up a reasonable plan.
"It might be risky," he said, while requesting anonymity. "But at least they're looking to the future instead of just doing what everyone else is doing, which is cutting staff. Maybe this will work, maybe not. If it does it may be a breakthrough for the newspaper business."
Or, from now on, just the "news" business.
10 August 2008
Hello, World!
Dear Reader:
A month ago, I announced that I was working on a beta site for RealClearPolitics, a superb compilation and analysis site for all things politics. Now I am able to present RealClearWorld, an international news and politics site featuring articles from the leading English-language publications around the world, and sometimes, even from yours truly.
RealClearWorld launched on Aug. 9, just as the Beijing Olympics got under way and Russia began its invasion of Georgia. In a world juxtaposed with both conflict and harmony, I trust our site will be a good source for useful information you're looking for.
Come and see us soon!
09 July 2008
A RealClear Choice
Dear Reader:
The Berlinzoo is undergoing an expansion!
With pleasure, I'm announcing that I have joined the RealClearPolitics team. RCP is a well-trafficked and highly-regarded compilation and analysis site, on all matters politics. I will mainly work on a beta site (which I'm not at liberty to reveal yet) due to launch within a month, as well as RealClearSports, as an editor and contributor.
This is my first piece for RealClearSports, heralding the impending Wimbledon men's final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, which, of course, did not disappoint. I am expected to write on a weekly basis, perhaps more frequently once the football season gets under way.
Like its sister site, RealClearSports is a compilation site that provides links to the day's top sports opinion and feature pieces from various publications, web sites and blogs. The site is updated twice daily, at 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. It's as if we're publishing a morning and an afternoon newspaper -- just like the good ol' days.
I will make another announcement when the beta site is formally launched. Please visit us, early and often!
The Berlinzoo is undergoing an expansion!
With pleasure, I'm announcing that I have joined the RealClearPolitics team. RCP is a well-trafficked and highly-regarded compilation and analysis site, on all matters politics. I will mainly work on a beta site (which I'm not at liberty to reveal yet) due to launch within a month, as well as RealClearSports, as an editor and contributor.
This is my first piece for RealClearSports, heralding the impending Wimbledon men's final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, which, of course, did not disappoint. I am expected to write on a weekly basis, perhaps more frequently once the football season gets under way.
Like its sister site, RealClearSports is a compilation site that provides links to the day's top sports opinion and feature pieces from various publications, web sites and blogs. The site is updated twice daily, at 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. It's as if we're publishing a morning and an afternoon newspaper -- just like the good ol' days.
I will make another announcement when the beta site is formally launched. Please visit us, early and often!
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