(From BCS Guru)
FINAL UPDATED
The season of upsets brought us one fine ending ... and a fine mess. The BCS Guru now projects that Ohio State and LSU, two teams that occupied the top spot of the BCS standings for much of the season, will meet in New Orleans in the BCS national championship game.
Ohio State will be a comfortable No. 1 against LSU, which will edge Virginia Tech (No. 3) and Georgia (No. 4) and Oklahoma (No. 5) for the spot. The Tigers' early-season rout of the Hokies, and the victory over a Tennessee team that blew out Georgia should put them over the top.
The Guru's preliminary analysis, pending the outcome of the Hawai'i-Washington game, is that LSU will win out primarily in the polls. LSU, Georgia and Virginia Tech will be very close in the computer rankings. But the Tigers will make the quantum leap from No. 7 to No. 2 because of its body of work; and the early-season win over Virginia Tech and SEC championship game victory over Tennessee will pay big dividends.
Les Miles, who's definitely not going to Michigan now, also planted the seeds earlier in the week when he lobbied for LSU's merit, stating that both of the Tigers' losses were in triple-overtime. Those words will now resonate in the heads of the coaches and Harris voters.
Mark Richt went on ESPN to state his case, but his argument rings hollow -- as was with Michigan's Lloyd Carr last year. The voters, having wrested control of the BCS standings from the computers, don't want to hear that it's not a BCS stipulation to put a conference champion in the BCS title game. Remember, when Nebraska (2001) and Oklahoma (2003) went in spite of not winning its division and conference, respectively, it was the computers' handiwork in both cases.
As for Oklahoma and USC, it's a case of too-little-too-late, as well as killer losses to unworthy opponents (OU to Colorado and USC to Stanford). Both teams are too far down in the polls -- and also the computers -- to make up ground. Kansas, despite being the only other one-loss team besides Ohio State, also has no chance after failing to reach the Big XII title game.
Should LSU make the BCS championship game as projected, most likely there will NOT be a split championship. LSU was No. 5 in the last AP poll, very close to No. 4 Georgia. The Tigers are expected to make the jump to No. 2, ahead of Georgia and Virginia Tech, in the final regular-season AP poll.
The BCS bowl situation is very fluid as well. Down 21-0 early, Hawai'i has roared back to defeat Washington, 35-28, finishing with the only perfect 12-0 record in Division I-A and earning the WAC's second consecutive BCS bowl trip.
The Guru's final bowl projections:
BCS championship game: No. 1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 2 LSU (11-2)
Rose Bowl: No. 8 USC (10-2) vs. 13. Illinois (9-3)
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 10 Hawai'i (12-0)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. No. 9 West Virginia (10-2)
Orange Bowl: No. 3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. No. 7 Kansas (11-1)
Other teams in the projected Top 15: 6. Missouri (11-2), 11. Arizona State (10-2), 12. Florida (9-3), 14. Boston College (10-3), 15. Clemson (9-3).
55 comments:
Geaux Tigahs!
I don't see how anybody can think Ohio State belongs in there. The Big-10 was weaker than the WAC this year. LSU, USC, and Oklahoma look like the 3 best teams in college football to me.
exactly as it should be. LSU will smoke Ohio State though especially since the game lets everyone get healthy. that is one beat up football team.
guru you are da man
Here is an idea! After LSU was ranked no.1 LATE in the season and then relinquished their ranking with a loss LATE in the season; why not let a team that lost early in the season, Georgia, play for the championship. They're obviously one of the hottest teams in the NCAA. I guess that's why we have the "Bull!$#@-CS" ranking system.
Derek
college football (BCS) is a joke. Until there is a playoff I will have no respect for the establishment. How can a team that is ranked # 7 in the BCS suddenly jump 5 spots? How can teams that were good enough last week to be tanked 3, 4, 5, or 6suddenly no longer be as good, even though they did not play again?
Georgia didn't win...err...COMPETE for the conference championship because they were skulldragged when they played the SEC East Champion. They also lost to a team that isn't even going bowling.
LSU lost 2 games in Triple OT. Yes, this team has underperformed a little and is at the same time a little over rated, but they win games, period! GUTS! They won today without their starting QB and the best defensive player in country. Ask WVU how it feels to play without your starting QB.
And Les Miles is the hero that recruited Ryan Per... It was the 1st thing he did as head coach. He actually got him to deny Texas and go to LSU!
First of all an economist at OSU did a paper that blew up the myth that it's better to lose early than late. Secondly you CAN leapfrog teams if those teams are losing or sitting on their asses while you're busy winning your conference. But yes this system is a joke.
Best college football playoff format I've seen is...
http://XeiOnSports.blogspot.com/
Guru, you've got your work cut out for you - best of luck.
Georgia doesn't deserve it, they got schooled by Ten. who just got beat by LSU. LSU won the SEC and GA didn't even make it to the title game. LSU skull drug Va Tech and they have the same record so they should go over them.
i heard that there was a radio interview in chicago with two harris poll voters who said they would vote osu at 5th
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LSU does not deserve to play for the National Championship. Both of their losses were to teams ranked below them (with one not even ranked for the last game of the season).
I think his prediction is wrong. Rose can only take Georgia only if the sugar bowl consents. There is specific language in the rules about how bowls pick the replacements for NC game participants.
Everybody seems to forget that USC lost one of their games game by one point and another by seven, with their second string quarterback and several players hurt. USC is a healthy team now and without doubt, playing the best football of any team ie; LSU. USC belongs in the National Championship game, PERIOD!
Rose Bowl CANNOT select Georgia because Sugar Bowl can and will block it.
Learn the BCS rules guru!
USC v. Illinois in Rose Bowl. UGA v. Kansas in Sugar Bowl
Ignoring the pissing contest, as there is no real defensible argument for any team over another.
I think if LSU gets in and Rose Bowl ditches tradition to take Georgia, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sugar take Clemson over Illinois (assuming Hawaii loses). Clemson may be perceived as a better "traveling" team than Illinois.
The Rose can Pick Ga. because they pick in a specific order and the Sugar bowl picks last.
no the rose can not do this. read the bsc rules for the replacements of national championship game participants.
Why Ohio State...who have they played in 2007?
I think some of the Harris voters and coaches will rank Ohio St. really low to prove a point this year. I woulsn't be suprised if most of them put LSU at 1, Oklahoma at 2, USC at 3, Virginia Tech at 4, Georgia at 5 and Ohio St. at 6...leaving Kansas at 7 and Missouri at 8...if that's the case the computers will figure out who plays for the title, probably LSU vs. either Oklahoma, USC or Georgia...
I'd be surprised if BYU didn't jump Tennessee, Oregon, and Boston College (plus Hawaii if they manage to lose at home to a terrible Washington team). That would put the Cougars at #15.
P.S. Georgia and Kansas are two teams that don't belong anywhere near the championship game. Period.
P.P.S. We really, REALLY need a true national championship playoff tournament. Keep the bowls, but give us a real winner!
I don't think Clemson will get picked over Illinois. I think the Rose Bowl will take Illinois over Kansas. They seem to really value tradition over the past 50 years...
Illinois will travel well, they are hungry.
Like I said, here is the format for the best college football playoff.
http://XeiOnSports.blogspot.com/
There is an 8,12 and 16 team format. Each system takes conference champions plus highest remaining ranked teams to fill out the bracket. Then teams are seeded based on BCS ranking. That way the ranking system is good for something. The format with 8 teams just takes the winners of the top 6 conferences. The 12 and 16 team formats are more friendly to some of the non BCS conferences.
vr, Xei
Assuming LSU is in the NCG, the Rose would have to get consent from the Sugar to take Georgia. But even if the Sugar doesn't consent, they don't get the next pick... the Orange does.
My Bad... the Sugar would get a replacement pick first.
Rose picks first, but if they want Georgia, they have to get Sugar's consent, which they won't get. Sugar picks second because of losing LSU. I think he has it right.
Breaking news.........
Big Ten Officials have been assured UofI is in the Rose Bowl if OSU is in the NC game.
tOSU belongs in the National Championship... lsu doesn't... wah wah, we're in the SEC and lost in overtimes, wah wah, SEC, wah!... seriously, if the voters give in and put lsu, i'll lose all respect for the polls. Virginia Tech should be in the NC game
Chicago Sun Times reporting that the Rose Bowl will select ILLINOIS.
How can you claim to be a Guru and not see that it is obviously in the Orange Bowl's best interest to pick West Virginia to play Va Tech and the Fiesta Bowl's best interest to pick Kansas or Arizona State to play Oklahoma due to the proximity of those fan bases to the location as well as opponent?
The pathetic thing is we are all debating this... and people no smarter than us are deciding who goes to the Mythical National Championship game. What a complete crock of $heot.
Bottom line, in any logical system, 1 & 2 lose then 3 & 4 play next. Anything other than this is complete manipulation.
Georgia needs to be moved up to number 2...I say that because lsu barely beat tennessee by 1 touchdown to win the sec championship...Georgia has blow out there last 6 opponents...How can LSU jump 5 spots due to 1 touchdown...If LSU blew Tennessee out of the water I could understand...but they didnt
Check the BCS Bowl selection rules on bcsfootball.org. IF Ohio State is ranked #1 in the Final BCS Poll, then the Rose Bowl selects its replacement team first and DOES NOT need the approval of the Sugar Bowl to choose Georgia because Georgia is not the SEC Champion. IF LSU is ranked #1 in the Final BCS Poll, then the Sugar Bowl selects its replacement team first and they'll most likely pick Georgia [unless GA is also in the NCG]. NO WAY will the Orange Bowl choose Kansas ahead of VA Tech. The Fiesta Bowl most likely ends up picking ASU, a home town favorite, to play OU.
National Championship BCS#1 VS. BCS#2 #1 and #2 lost there last game of the year so #3 goes to #1 while #4 goes to #2 pretty simple dont you think !!!! But wait a minute the BCS DUMB_SS thinks that BCS#7 should go to#2 Regardless of who the teams are does that realy make any sense at all??? Ohio State vs. Georgia (NCG)
I see yet another rule change coming in the BCS for next year. A team cannot play for the "National Championship" unless they are a Conference Champion. KU and UGA do not deserve to play in teh NCG because they aren't Conference Champions. I predict UGA loses to Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl. The Rose will choose Illinois because the Big Ten will ensure the Conference takes home the extra BCS $$$$.
What a wonderful joke of a system!
The faithful followers of College football should leave the TV off and stay at home next year...send a message college football and the College Athletic Director's that a Plus 1 system needs to replace the BCS.
1 and 2 loose, 3 and 4 should replace!
Anyone that thinks Clemson would go to the Rose over Illinois is an idiot--Illinois and it's enormous alumni base travel plenty well--too many people assume southern schools are superior just because they are southern. Get past the myth.
I would love for someone to explain to me how week 2 LSU and current LSU are the same team...they aren't. Not even close. In the same breath, week 2 VT is drastic worse than the current Hokies. As a UVa fan, I was there for UVa-Tech game. VT has two loses to #2 ranked teams. One was a blatant aberation, as a BC loving friend of mine located not 1 not 2 but 11 holds not called by the refs in the first BC-Tech game and a whopping 16 in the ACC championship game. Even the ABC announcers made a comment about how BC was holding on nearly every play. LSU smoked them early in the season...but I would like to bring up Arkansas, a throwback to the days before the forward pass. I don't advocate a playoff system, but this year it could be the only way to actually establish who is really the best.
Guru, I've got to disagree with you. I don't believe, when given the opportunity, the Orange Bowl would select Kansas. There's no reason to believe that the Kansas fan base will travel well. I believe a much more attractive matchup for the Orange would be to select West Virginia to play Virginia Tech. The Fiesta, then, would have the opportunity to select Arizona State, which I'm sure they'd jump at. The rest should fall as you have them presented here.
The BCS must change its rules. The teams that play in the TOP bowls should be the BEST teams, for example if you play and win your conference game you should respectively get the better bowl pick than the team you beat. Which leads me to say...TN should be playing in the SUGAR BOWL not Mark Richt and his Georgia Bulldogs. Send the Dogs to whatever bowl you choose and all TN the opportunity to play in the Sugar Bowl. This is just one example.
The other...GEAUX TIGERS, Yes, LSU should be in the Championship Game, they have proven they deserve to be there. However, now Ohio State, a team that has been riding the pine for weeks will "slip" right into the Championship game, with other teams more deserving.
LSU will be the National Champions! GEAUX TIGERS
VT, Oklahoma, and Georgia all have better arguments than Ohio State for the National Championship Game birth. OSU hasn't beat a top 20 team all year. The only good team they played was Illinois, and they lost. Maybe the Michigan game gives them a little credit, but not much. If anything, it should be OU and LSU, OU and USC, or OU and UGA (LSU never beat UGA, and dont go down the, "well they beat so and so," route because it's pointless, if you watched the last seven weeks of college football, you know as well as I do that UGA is better than LSU). Ohio State has proven about as much as Hawaii has this year, except with a loss that Hawaii doesn't have. If OSU gets in, then it should clearly be OSU and Hawaii because the same reasoning that would put in OSU should put in Hawaii.
All things being equal, LSU beat VT head to head. Why do we play the game otherwise? Will anyone want to play a healthy LSU team in 36 days? I would suggest that you first ask Frank Beamer. As for Oklahoma: Colorado and Texas Tech. Compare those losses to Kentucky and Arkansas, both teams with winning records in the SEC. As for USC: Stanford. This is not rocket science, folks. It is an imperfect system. I actually prefer the old days. The Sugar Bowl would be LSU v Oklahoma. Orange Bowl would be Viginia Tech v Georgia. (OK, usually it would be reversed and Oklahoma would be in the Orange and VT in the Sugar, but LSU had already played VT this year, so they would not have a rematch) Rose would be Ohio State v USC. We could all look and decide. And what good match-ups.
In the end, if Tommy Tuberville's team doesn't chop block LSU's defensive leader, Dorsey, we are not having this conversation. Love, Jim.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS are a #2 team,play them against any team in the rankings right now and they will show who's #1..ohio state,usc,oklahoma..round robin anyone!!
How can Kansas jump Missouri? who they lost to? Missouri did lose one more game than Kansas, but they also played one more game than Kansas because the Tigers beat the Jayhawks to win the Big 12 North and qualify for the title game. Shouldn't the new big 12 order be 1.OU 2.MU. 3.KU ???
Big
Crock of
S$it
How is it too little too late for Oklahoma when LSU just lost last week to unranked Arkansas? Nobody seems to discuss that. And when ESPN says "Les Miles kept their fans on the edge of their seat" that is because they almost lost every game!!!!!!! Any comments on this GURU???
Let me make one thing clear: Just because I make these projections (and that they turn out to be correct -- most of the time) that doesn't mean I necessarily agree with the outcome.
Is Ohio State or LSU more worthy than Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech, USC or even Hawai'I? All that's debatable. What's not debatable is this system is broken and no one (except for Ohio State and LSU, perhaps) is happy.
I have some ideas about how to fix this system. And they will appear in this space throughout the bowl season.
First of all Lsu dosent deserve to play in the national championship because they lost 2 times in 3ot, also the beat a weak tennessee team in the sec championship game. Osu will win because Lsu hasnt met a defense like Ohio State
who ever said this........."I don't see how anybody can think Ohio State belongs in there. The Big-10 was weaker than the WAC this year. LSU, USC, and Oklahoma look like the 3 best teams in college football to me."
WELL YOUR A F**KING DUMB B*TCH
USC they lost to stanford you can defend that all you want but they LOST!!!!!!!! Oklahoma lost to TEXAS TECH and COLORADO!!!!!!!! but i agree with you on lsu
I can't wait to hear the real truth behind Rich Rodriguez' move to Michigan. Did he know before he ran 6 different plays against Pitt? There is no way one of the nations top offenses is stymied like that. Any other conspiracy theories ?
Crispy
happy new year! go tigers and go hawaii tonight!
No way Rodriguez throws the game. But WVU was incredibly tight that night. Judging by the way they played in the Fiesta Bowl, they could've won the national championship and Rodriguez might've never left!
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