It's Oklahoma!

(From BCS Guru)

The voter shifts in the coaches poll and Harris poll were not enough to prevent Oklahoma from jumping Texas in the latest BCS standings, sending the Sooners to the Big 12 title game.

The Longhorns, however, can still win the BCS title and the AP title as well. Texas is ahead of Oklahoma in the AP poll. And should OU lose to Missouri in the Big 12 title game, the Longhorns are guaranteed a spot in the BCS title game.

One Harris voter did not cast a ballot. And as usual, all coaches and Harris ballots were secret.

Also, Oregon State's loss to Oregon prevented a mini-championship game scenario where Texas would've taken on USC in the Fiesta Bowl, with the winner potentially winning the AP title. With the Trojans locked into the Rose Bowl now (should they defeat UCLA), both teams will face lower-ranked teams in their respective bowl games and a split title scenario becomes a bit more remote.

The Envelope, Please ...

(From BCS Guru)

(Late update added to provide more robust data, the analysis remains unchanged)

This is probably the most difficult projection the Guru has ever had to do. But here goes ...

No. 2 SHOULD BE Oklahoma.

But will it be? That's entirely up to the voters.

Logically, Oklahoma should be No. 2. But if the BCS is about logic, then it wouldn't even exist. And with all these voters - 175 in all, if they all vote - having foisted upon them a responsibility that they neither desired nor deserved, there really is no telling where they're going to go.

Nevertheless, they're asked to decide on the Big 12 tiebreaker, as the winner of the South Division will be determined by the BCS standings, among Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Whoever gets into the Big 12 title game will be the prohibitive favorite to beat Missouri and have the inside track to the BCS title game, against the SEC title game winner between Florida and Alabama.

Well, let's examine those three Big 12 South contenders, side-by-side:

1. Against Big 12 South teams:

Oklahoma Beat ...

at Baylor, 49-17
at Oklahoma State, 61-41
at Texas A&M, 66-28

Cumulative Score: 176-86
Point Differential: +90

Texas Beat ...

Baylor, 45-21
Oklahoma State, 28-24
Texas A&M, 49-9

Cumulative Score: 122-54
Point Differential: +68

Texas Tech Beat ...

Baylor, 35-28
Oklahoma State, 56-20
at Texas A&M, 43-25

Cumulative Score: 134-73
Point Differential: +61

Advantage: Oklahoma.

2. Against all other common opponents:

Only Kansas played all three and this is how it fared:

Lost to Texas Tech, 63-21
Lost to Texas, 35-7
Lost at Oklahoma, 45-31

Advantage: Texas Tech.

3. None-conference opponents:

Oklahoma

Chattanooga (I-AA), 1-11
No. 16 Cincinnati (Big East Champion), 10-2
at Washington, 0-11
No. 14 TCU, 10-2

Cumulative Record: 20-15 (I-A only)
Bowl Teams: 2

Texas

Florida Atlantic, 6-6
at UTEP, 5-7
Arkansas, 5-7
Rice, 9-3

Cumulative Record: 25-23
Bowl Teams: 1

Texas Tech

Eastern Washington (I-AA), 6-5
at Nevada, 7-5
SMU, 1-11
UMass (I-AA), 7-5

Cumulative Record: 8-16 (I-A only)
Bowl Teams: 1

The Sooners did play at winless Washington, but they beat two teams expected to be in the top 15 of the BCS standings. In total, OU beat four teams ranked in the projected BCS top 15. Or put it another way, these 15 teams had a total of 18 losses, and OU is responsible for doling out four of them, twice as many as Texas, Texas Tech and USC, the only other teams with multiple wins vs. the top 15. Advantage: Oklahoma.

4. Head-to-head: Texas wants to talk about beating OU, 45-35, true, but this is not a pure head-to-head situation, it's a three-way tie and a circular argument. Texas Tech has to be included in every discussion because we're trying to break a three-way tie. That Oklahoma routed the Red Raiders is a credit to the Sooners, not an opportunity to dismiss Tech.

And just for logic's sake, the fact that Texas beat OU on a neutral field is a classic non-sequitur. One may deduce that Texas would've beaten OU in Austin, but nothing more - so essentially each team WOULD'VE won at home. The following is how these three teams did against each other, the research courtesy of our friends at Saurian Sagacity:

Oklahoma

Points Scored: 100
Points Against: 66
Net Points: 34
Total Yards: 1060
Total Yards Against: 844
Net Yards: 216

Texas

Points Scored: 78
Points Against: 74
Net Points: 4
Total Yards: 812
Total Yards Against: 1014
Net Yards: -202

Texas Tech

Points Scored: 60
Points Against: 98
Net Points: -38
Total Yards: 985
Total Yards Against: 999
Net Yards: -14

Taken in its totality, it's rather obvious that Oklahoma is the most impressive in the head-to-head results. Advantage: Oklahoma.

If last week's poll results stay relatively stable - given that every team in the top 10 either won or was idle - this is how the computer rankings should break down:

1. Alabama (.970), 2. Texas (.960), 3. Oklahoma (.940), 4. Florida (.880), 5. Utah (.830).

And the BCS standings would look like this:

1. Alabama (.987), 2. Oklahoma (.926), 3. Texas (.921), 4. Florida (.909), 5. USC (.797).

The biggest loser this weekend, without a doubt, is USC. The Trojans not only don't have a shot at the BCS title game, their AP title hopes also evaporated with Oregon State's loss to Oregon. By being forced to play in the Rose Bowl against Penn State, there is little chance for USC to claim the AP title, as opposed to a Fiesta Bowl matchup against either Oklahoma or Texas.

So, assuming the voters actually do their homework and not go nuts or conspiracy-happy, here's the Guru's projection of the penultimate BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Penn State, 8. Texas Tech, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. TCU, 12. Ball State, 13. Cincinnati, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Oregon.

Winning Games and Scoring (Style) Points

(From BCS Guru)

Vince Lombardi was wrong about this: Winning is not everything, it's not even the only thing. Winning BIG is what truly counts.

We're at a phase of the college football season where style points are equally as important as winning. Beat your opponents by a big margin, watch you rocket up the BCS standings. Barely squeaking by a weak foe, it might as well be a loss.

Two teams facing this particular predicament this weekend are Texas and Oklahoma. The two Big 12 rivals are locked in a death grip for the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings - and with it, a berth in the Big 12 title game and a clearer path to the BCS title game. If both teams should win, and provided that Texas Tech as expected defeats Baylor, the BCS standings will be used to determine which team to face Missouri in the Big 12 championship game.

No. 3 Oklahoma should have the upper hand, even though at the moment the Sooners are .084 points behind No. 2 Texas. Their opponent, Oklahoma State, is 9-2 and ranked No. 12 in the BCS standings - its only losses were to Texas and Texas Tech. The Longhorns host Texas A&M, their archrival but having a horrendous season with a 4-7 record.

If Texas even struggles against the Aggies, it will make things very easy for Oklahoma - a non-controversial victory in Stillwater should be enough to move OU into No. 2. If the Longhorns blow out A&M and OU has a hard time putting away OSU, then Texas just might squeeze out enough votes to maintain its slim lead. A score comparison also is in play: Texas barely beat OSU in Austin, 28-24. The bar isn't set very high in that department for the Sooners.

The BCS did away with margin of victory in the computers in 2003, ostensibly to discourage coaches to run up scores to impress the computers. But it forgot to remove eyeballs and brain cells from the pesky poll voters, who for some reason continue to consider margin of victory when they cast their ballots. And since the standings were re-formulated in 2004 to favor the human voters, running up scores has therefore become more important than ever.

The Texas A&M-Texas Thanksgiving night (8 p.m. ET) showdown kicks off this weekend's crucial slate, bookended by Saturday night's Bedlam throwdown between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (also 8 p.m. ET). And there are a handful others that will have significant impact on this year's BCS bowl picture:

Auburn at No. 1 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. - The 5-6 Tigers need this win just to be bowl eligible whereas the Tide, the lone remaining unbeaten BCS conference team, needs a victory to keep its national championship hopes in tact. Once again, Tommy Tubberville' seat is getting quite warm (maybe he should check the coils under the seat cushion, this seems to happen almost every year) but a seventh straight victory in the Iron Bowl will placate a lot of unhappy people.

No. 4 Florida at No. 20 Florida State, 3:30 p.m. - This, for a time, was the rivalry in college football. But with FSU seemingly freefalling and Florida's ascendancy, the gap between these Sunshine State foes have grown to be considerable. The Gators have won the last four by an average of 18.5 points and they will need to score a big victory to stay in the hunt for the top 2 spots. Don't think for a moment that Urban Meyer will take pity on the Seminoles.

Syracuse at No. 16 Cincinnati, Noon - Well, this is the BGISH for Cincinnati. A victory gives the Bearcats the Big East title and the school's first BCS bowl berth. All they have to do is handle a 3-8 Syracuse team whose coach was fired two weeks ago. But the Orangemen didn't get the memo last week in an upset at Notre Dame, so Cincy had better show up for this game.

No. 23 Oregon at No. 17 Oregon State, 7 p.m. - The resurgent Beavers are playing for the school's first Rose Bowl berth in 44 years, but they'll now have to win the Civil War without the help of star freshman tailback Jacquizz Rodgers. OSU holds the tiebreaker on USC, whose lone loss was in Corvallis back in September. But ironically most Trojans fans will be rooting for OSU as they'd rather not return to Pasadena so they can get a better game elsewhere, say, in the Fiesta against either Oklahoma or Texas.

Virginia at Virginia Tech (Noon); No. 21 Boston College at Maryland (3:30 p.m.) - These two games will determine the two ACC teams who'll play for the conference's wholly undeserved Orange Bowl berth. A Virginia Tech victory sends the Hokies to the ACC title game for the third time in four years, otherwise, it'll be Georgia Tech. Boston College can earn a return trip to the ACC title game, otherwise, Florida State gets to go to Tampa.

Eyes of BCS Are Upon Mack Brown

(From BCS Guru)

Coach Mack Brown, how are you gonna vote?

That's the 17 million dollar question that Texas coach Mack Brown might have to answer to. Brown just may end up casting the deciding vote on who gets to play in the Big 12 title game - and by extension, the BCS national championship game.

How? As this has been rehashed many times now: Brown has a vote in the coaches poll whereas Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots next week, but that's when the tiebreaker for the Big 12 South will be decided, via the BCS standings. (We're assuming that Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are going to win as favorites, please stop flooding the Guru about all the other probabilities - I'm WELL AWARE of them.)

If Brown drops Oklahoma from where he had them last week (presumably in the top 5, but he's not telling) to 10th, 20th or even entirely off the ballot ("Oops, did I forget to put OU on the ballot? That must've been an oversight, darn!"), it will have a profound - if not deciding - impact on the BCS title picture.

Based on the Guru's projections - assuming the human voters stay mostly static with their ballots - this is how the BCS standings will look should Alabama defeat Auburn in the Iron Bowl:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma (.940 computer, .9258 overall), 3. Texas (.960 computer, .9209 overall), 4. Florida (.840 computer, .8955 overall).

If Brown leaves Oklahoma off the ballot, OU will end up at .9208 - yep, you guessed it, 1/10,000th of a point behind Texas and voila! Hook 'em Horns to the Big 12 title game! Even if he just nudges the Sooners to 10th, a tiny bit of movement in Texas' favor elsewhere in the polls will do the trick just as well.

You know, like calling to ask a favor from a friend or something. Yes, we're just getting warmed up.

The coaches' poll is such a conflict of interest cesspool, it's amazing how the whole season just might come down to who puts whom where in their ballot. No fewer than seven Big 12 coaches have a vote in the coaches poll, including Brown:

Art Briles (Baylor), Gene Chizik (Iowa State), Dan Hawkins (Colorado), Mike Leach (Texas Tech), Bo Pelini (Nebraska) and Gary Pinkel (Missouri).

Four other coaches with teams in Texas or Oklahoma also vote:

Todd Dodge (North Texas), Todd Graham (Tulsa), Gary Patterson (TCU) and Mike Price (UTEP).

Here's where the intrigue begins. Brown undoubtedly has a few guys on his speed dial if it comes down to the nuclear option Saturday night: Chizik is a former assistant, Dodge is a former Texas quarterback and San Jose State's Dick Tomey was an assistant in between head jobs at Arizona and SJSU and helped Brown win a Rose Bowl in 2005.

But Stoops, who probably now regrets giving up his vote after last season, has a formidable coaching tree and allies himself. Both Leach and Pelini were his assistants, and he can probably count on Steve Spurrier, his former boss at Florida whose own son Steve Jr. tutored under Stoops.

Then there are a few with their own murky agendas: Urban Meyer, whose Florida team is no lock for a top 2 spot even if it wins its final two games, may want to make sure to keep BOTH Texas and OU down. Cal's Jeff Tedford, who no doubt remembers how Brown screwed his Golden Bears out of that 2005 Rose Bowl berth, might decide it's high time to exact a little sweet revenge.

And this is just scratching the surface. I'm sure there are other relationships that run beneath the obvious; and don't forget the Harris poll, whose 114 voters are full of former players, coaches and administrators, whose allegiances run the gamut.

That's why the secret ballot (for both coaches and Harris voters) is a terrible idea. Using the BCS standings to break conference ties is just icing on the crappy cake.

A lot of this intrigue, however, might melt away - at least for this week - if Auburn upsets Alabama. This is how the BCS standings should look if the Tigers take their seventh straight Iron Bowl (again, assuming the ballots stay static - slotting each team one spot higher):

1. Oklahoma (.970 computer, .9625 overall), 2. Texas (.980 computer, .9542 overall), 3. Florida (.890 computer, .9388 overall).

This way, the Sooners will have more of a security blanket against voter shenanigans. And Florida will creep a little closer to the top 2 spot. Of course, this sets up a potential all-Big 12 BCS championship game with a rematch between Oklahoma and Texas.

We'll have to leave that topic for next week. One controversy at a time, please.

RCW Person of the Year

(From RealClearWorld)

It used to mean something to be selected as Time Magazine's "Person of the Year." Began in 1937, with Charles Lindbergh as the first honoree, the lineup of what used to be "Man of the Year" was filled with the world's movers and shakers, for better or worse.

FDR won it - the only person to be named thrice - but so did Adolf Hilter and Josef Stalin. Ghandi, Churchill, Ike and George Marshall were all among the early honorees. But over time, this list has been populated more often by frivolous choices.

The Computer has won it (1982) ... as did the Earth (1988) ... but the absurdity perhaps reached its apex when the magazine picked approximately 6 billion winners in 2006.

You.

Yeah, you.

Eager to restore its relevance, the magazine actually made a good choice last year - then-Russian president Vladimir Putin, certainly a worthy winner even if a controversial one. And Putin rewarded Time's editors with a lengthy and thought-provoking interview.



In about two weeks, the magazine is due to release its 2008 choice. But RealClearWorld has decided not to wait. We've seen enough from around the world to come up with our own Person of the Year. While there are scientists, humanitarians, artists and athletes who may warrant consideration, our top five candidates are more political in nature.

Here are our choices:

No. 5 Nicolas Sarkozy

'Horns No. 2, But For How Long?

(From BCS Guru)

After Oklahoma gutted Texas Tech on Saturday, the Big 12 South debate officially raged on. Will Texas hold off Oklahoma for the coveted No. 2 spot, assuring a berth in the Big 12 title game? Or will OU overtake UT, despite having lost to the Longhorns on a neutral field?

The latest BCS standings still favor the Longhorns, but here's a message before you start humming "The Eyes of Texas": Don't get too comfortable.

Just how thin is Texas' advantage over Oklahoma? If the Sooners move up one spot in three of the computers, then they'd be ahead of the Longhorns. Or, if about a third of the voters decide to swap OU ahead of UT on their ballots, that'd do it, too.

The former is far more likely to happen than the latter, as Oklahoma plays at No. 13 Oklahoma State whereas Texas faces woeful Texas A&M at home. There's much more room for Oklahoma to improve its computer rankings while the 'Horns are basically "maxed out." Texas also wants to pay particular attention to the Alabama game, as an Auburn win in the Iron Bowl will certainly provide the computer boost that OU needs - IF the poll results stay relatively static.

So the big question is, will Texas hold Oklahoma off for one more week? Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Texas coach Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches poll whereas OU coach Bob Stoops does not. Not to call his integrity into question, but since it's a secret ballot, what's to stop Brown from putting OU as low as 10th on his ballot?

Sitting in wait is No. 4 Florida. With games against Florida State and No. 1 Alabama remaining on the schedule, the Gators should be able to move up the standings - particularly with Texas and Oklahoma in a deadlock, potentially splitting valuable votes. An Oklahoma upset loss to Oklahoma State would clear the path for Florida, though it might not be entirely necessary.

The team that's doomed is No. 5 USC. Even with a couple of upsets in the final two weekends, there is no conceivable way for the Trojans to climb into the top 2, thus a spot in the BCS title game. USC's weak computer rankings will not alter much with games against mediocre Notre Dame and UCLA left - and that weakness will torpedo USC's quest even if it finishes in the top 2 in the human polls. The only way the Trojans can win the 2008 national championship is via the AP poll.

A split championship? Yep, that possibility is alive and well. But that's a topic for another day.

Tech Bubble Burst Roils BCS Market

(From BCS Guru)

Well, the BCS may have a crisis that mirrors the one in the real world.

It was so easy last week that the Guru just knew there will be ample payback this time. If the caveman could do the projections last week, then this week's would require the combined brain power of Albert Einstein, Werner von Braun and Stephen Hawking, not to mention the psychoanalytic mind of Freud. This might be a bit out of the realm for a chump like me.

But I'll try anyway.

First thing first, we know two things for sure: Penn State is headed to the Rose Bowl, becoming the first team to clinch a BCS berth this season. Utah followed suit by completing a 12-0 season, becoming the first non-BCS team to win multiple BCS bowl berths.

The rest is up in the air.

Oklahoma's 65-21 annihilation of No. 2 Texas Tech sets up a near certainty of the BCS standings being employed to break a three-way tie in the Big 12 South - OU still must win at Oklahoma State next week, though. If the Sooners stumble, then the Red Raiders win the Big 12 South if they can handle Baylor at home.

Take a deep breath and follow this one here: Texas can't win the Big 12 South on anything but the tiebreaker, and Oklahoma's blowout win made that a little more difficult. If the Longhorns don't get to play in the Big 12 title game, they still may play in the BCS title game. And even if they don't play in the BCS title game, they can still win the national championship - by winning the Fiesta Bowl and claiming the AP crown.

The door is left slightly ajar for USC as well - ironically because Oregon State may keep the Trojans out of the Rose Bowl. If they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, there is a chance for the Trojans to win the AP title - that chance doesn't exist if they face Penn State in Pasadena. In any event, there is virtually no chance for USC to play in the BCS championship game.

Alabama will ascend to No. 1 in the BCS standings, without a doubt. After the Tide, I expect Oklahoma to narrowly edge Texas for the No. 2 spot this week. The voters will be very torn about where to place the 'Horns and Sooners, even though Texas did defeat Oklahoma on a neutral field back in October. The 65 points OU hung on Texas Tech would be difficult to ignore as well.

Adding to the intrigue is that Texas coach Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches poll but OU coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots until the final regular-season poll, meaning that whatever Brown puts on his ballot will affect the tiebreaker - and it will stay a secret as well.

Here's the Guru's projections for the Week 13 BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. Georgia, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. Missouri, 14. Texas Christian, 15. Cincinnati.