A Brave New World

(From BCS Guru)

After Bloody Saturday, the BCS standings have been transformed as it's never been before. Honestly, who'd thought Boston College, South Florida and Kentucky would be in the Top 10 in the Week 5 unofficial BCS standings?

But that's exactly where we are, even if the top of the standings remains unchanged. LSU, for a second consecutive week, held onto the top spot. USC stays at No. 2, even though the Trojans are still No. 1 in both polls. Cal made a quantum leap from No. 8 to No. 3, and will be itching for its shot at USC on Nov. 10 in Strawberry Canyon.

The biggest jump, though, belongs to South Florida. This program was born just 11 years ago, and made the big time, sort of, by joining the Big East. But today, the Bulls, at No. 7, is the top ranked team in the State of Florida. Yes, ahead of Florida State, ahead of Miami, and ahead of defending national champion Florida.

While the Gators stayed in the Top 10 after losing to Auburn, West Virginia dropped to No. 11 after the loss to South Florida. Oklahoma's last-second loss to Colorado dropped the Sooners to No. 13; and fellow Big 12 South member Texas fell from No. 7 to No. 19. Next week's Red River Shootout at the Cotton Bowl is suddenly just another game between two one-loss teams.

Some luster also came off next Saturday's showdown between LSU and Florida. The Gators now must win to keep their slim repeat hopes alive. A loss will ensure that the football Gators will not duplicate the feat accomplished by the basketball Gators the last two seasons.

And finally, don't look now, but Hawai'i is creeping up to No. 18. With five of their final seven games at home, the Warriors will claim a BCS bowl spot if they can stay undefeated.

Any Given Saturday

(From BCS Guru)

In college football, every Saturday (or Thursday and Friday, for that matter) is the playoffs, whether it's in September or December. This Saturday, five of the top 10 teams in the AP poll lost. Gone (probably) are the championship hopes of Oklahoma, Florida, West Virginia, Texas and Rutgers ... and you can also add Oregon and Clemson to that mix.

This, of course, leads to quite a shakeup for the BCS standings. More than half (seven) of the top 13 teams in last week's unofficial BCS standings lost. And the survivors didn't exactly do it in scintillating fashion. USC overcame over 150 yards of penalties to barely edge Washington. LSU had an incredibly sloppy first half against Tulane. Wisconsin and Cal both won close games against unbeaten foes.

From here it looks as though LSU will keep its top ranking in the new unofficial BCS standings. USC will lose points in the polls after its narrow escape against the Huskies. And the Tigers still maintain an advantage in the computer ratings. In fact, I project that the Tigers will be ranked No. 1 when the first official BCS standings come out on Oct. 14 -- that is, unless they lose to Florida next week.

And in college football, anything is possible. Every game is a playoff game.

Weis Guys Finish Last

(From BCS Guru)

When Charlie Weis showed up on the Notre Dame campus in 2005, one of the first things he told his new charges was that they would have "a schematic advantage" over every opponent, no matter the talent level.

Schematic, Shchematic.

Three years hence, that schematic advantage seems as elusive as offensive touchdowns by the Irish.

After the latest Notre Dame beatdown, this time at the hands of Michigan State, Weis insisted that he "didn't become a crummy coach overnight."

Well, it took about three years. Or more accurately, the other guys are just Weising up.

At 0-4, and fast going on 0-8, Notre Dame is at a crossroads. Some of the Irish Kool-Aid drinkers insist that the worst is behind them and that 2008 will surely return Notre Dame to glory. That 2007 was truly a rebuilding year, even if Weis himself didn't want to use the "R" word. That this is really all Tyrone Willingham's fault.

But is it?

After going 19-10 in his first two-plus seasons, it's time to take a hard look at what Weis has done. And upon further review, you really have to wonder how the Notre Dame brass feels about that 10-year contract it gave to Weis after he went 5-2 in his first seven games.

Weis went 9-3 in 2005, with two good wins (over Michigan in Ann Arbor and over Tennessee at home), a memorable loss (to No. 1 USC in South Bend with the Trojans pulling out a thriller in the final minute), a bad loss (to Michigan State) and a bowl blowout (to Ohio State in the Fiesta). After going 6-6 in Willingham's final season, this was an improvement, but hardly monumental since ND still couldn't beat SC or win a bowl game.

In 2006, it was more of the same in a 10-3 season. The Irish had one good win (over Penn State), two comeback wins over underdogs (Michigan State and UCLA) and three blowout losses (to Michigan, USC and LSU in the Sugar), that extended their losing streaks to USC (five games) and in bowl games (nine).

This year, Notre Dame has been blown out in four straight games, by teams with an overall record of 11-5 (or 7-5 after removing games against ND). Its next four games will be, at Purdue, at UCLA, at home to Boston College and USC, four teams with a combined record of 15-1. For good measure, the final quartet on Notre Dame's schedule might not be as much a pushover as first thought, as it's possible for the Irish to go 2-2 against Navy, Air Force, Duke and Stanford.

Dare we say it, 2-10?

Whatever happened to the "schematic advantage?"

Well, as Bear Bryant once said, it's still up to the players to play the games. You can blame Willingham's weak recruiting all you want, but Weis a) hasn't "coached them up" to be better than they are; b) hasn't shown that he's made much hay with his own recruits. And as far as the X's and O's stuff, college coaches might not be the rubes that Weis thought they were. Michigan's Lloyd Carr, for example, couldn't beat Appalachian State but has "out-coached" Weis to the tune of 85-21 over the last two years.

And it simply may be that Weis is ill-suited for the college game. He's no longer dealing with seasoned pros like when he was with the New England Patriots. Motivation at the college level, when paychecks are not part of the equation, is a very different thing. In his two-plus seasons with Notre Dame, Weis' best game as a coach was a near win, the 34-31 loss to USC in '05. He didn't beat a Top 10 team and lost big to those in the Top 10.

In other words, he won the games he's supposed to win. That might be an improvement over Willingham. But that isn't good enough -- not at a program with its own TV network.

Notre Dame will improve next year. One, there's no place to go but up after this season. Two, the schedule is considerably softer, with Pittsburgh, Syracuse and San Diego State replacing Penn State, Georgia Tech and Air Force. Three, Weis and his staff can really concentrate on recruiting this winter, without worrying about another annoying bowl blowout.

For the rest of the college football universe, it's time to rejoice. No BCS berth will go to the undeserving Irish this year. Baseless rumors of Weis going to the NFL will not clutter up the sports pages. Best of all, that "Clausen for Heisman" campaign will have to wait another year.

Let's not wake up the echoes for awhile longer.

Harris Poll Out; LSU Back on Top

(From BCS Guru)

The Harris Interactive Poll made its season debut today and LSU regained the top spot over USC in the Week 4 unofficial BCS standings. It marked the third straight week that those two teams have swapped the top two positions. The Trojans have a significant lead on No. 3 Florida, with Oklahoma and Ohio State rounding out the Top 5.

West Virginia, Texas, California, Wisconsin and Boston College fill out the rest of the Top 10.

Despite receiving 91 first-place votes in the Harris poll, out of 114 voters, far ahead of LSU's 19, USC dropped to No. 2 because of the Bayou Tigers' superior computer rankings. Having played a tougher schedule than the Trojans thus far, LSU is No. 1 on three computer ratings and No. 2 on another. USC is ranked first, third, fourth and sixth on the four computers that have published their ratings.

The standings this week have taken on much greater authenticity. Because of the release of the Harris poll, and also the Colley Matrix computer ratings, more than 85 percent of the components that form the actual BCS standings are available. Previously, the AP poll was used in place of the Harris poll and only three computer ratings were available prior to this weekend.

Also starting this week, the Guru has incorporated a new feature in the standings: Now every team that received any votes or earned any computer points will be included in the standings. This information is important since several conferences use the BCS standings as a tiebreaker for bowl berths.

And finally, the Guru's loyal readers might want to take advantage of the RSS feed now available through this site. Anyone interested in signing up for a reader service or receiving e-mail notification of new postings can do so by clicking on the RSS button on the right-hand bar, or here. By signing up, you'll be the first to find out about the new BCS standings, official or unofficial, from the Guru.

Later this week, the Guru will begin dissecting various aspects of this year's conference races as we head toward the unveiling of the first official BCS standings, due out on Oct. 14.

UN Rejects Taiwan, Again

(From Sinotaneous)

As predicted, Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations failed during the 62nd Session of the General Assembly. It's the 15th consecutive time that the island nation has submitted a bid and failed.

I've had a couple of readers blasting me for the previous post about this issue. But let me clarify my position on this: 1) Do I think Taiwan should have a seat in the United Nations? Answer: Absolutely. 2) Do I think Taiwan should keep trying? Yes, but only if the conditions are ripe.

Let's face it, Taiwan has a very weak hand to play here. China is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. Besides a veto power, China also holds a lot of sway over other member nations, including the United States. As long as China is adamantly opposed to Taiwan's membership, then it's just not going to happen.

Part of politics is dealing with reality. Chen Shui-bian knows what the reality is, but he wants to recklessly play with the emotions and hopes of the Taiwanese people. By whipping up this non-starter issue, Chen basically showed that he has nothing else better (or more constructive) to do, then to antagonize China and continue his "de-Sinization" efforts. And by extension, he's ticking off the United States, too.

Taiwan's UN membership will continue to be just a dream as long as Chen, or any DDP politician holds the presidency of Taiwan. The only chance, and a remote one at that, of Taiwan actually gaining membership in the UN is if the island achieves some normalization of relations with China. That would entail high-level bilateral talks that lead to a more open relationship between the sides.

Until then, Taiwan should stop wasting all this emotional capital on a sure loser. Taiwan has very few allies (24 nations with diplomatic ties, out of 192 UN members) to help its cause, and the U.S. has already shown its displeasure in this latest go-around.

Besides, a UN membership means nothing but paying dues -- and with Taiwan having the world's 16th largest economy, that means a lot of dues. So all that money can go to the pockets of some third-world despot. Taiwan should just be thankful that it's not part of that worthless mess anyway.

The Ultimate Political Hack

(From Sinotaneous)

Some say Chen Shui-bian is a brilliant politician. That may be true in that he has managed time and again to survive one political crisis after another. But ultimately politicians are judged on their leadership abilities, of which Chen has none.

His latest political trickery is a referendum on whether "Taiwan" belongs in the United Nations. He has managed to whip the island nation into a frenzy with this call of "basic democracy." But as a political comedy, this is absurd, but not funny.

Taiwan has no chance of becoming a member of the United Nations. It's not going to happen as long as the People's Republic of China is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. It doesn't make things right, but that's the reality. China particularly will not tolerate the blatant challenge to its own absurd "One China" policy by allowing an entity called "Taiwan" -- not the legal name of the Republic of China -- into the U.N.

Chen knows this, but just as everything he's done in his seven years of utter failure as the president, he is more interested in preserving his own power via political gamesmanship than doing anything useful for the island's 23 million inhabitants. His approval ratings are in the low 20s or high teens, which make George W. Bush's numbers look robust. The island's economy has remained stagnant since he took office in 2000. And relations with China continue to deteriorate while he's in office.

But he knows how to put his rival Kuomintang (KMT) on the defensive. A rather feckless lot, the KMT leadership constantly is playing catch-up and never seems to be able to take advantage of the recent troubles experienced by Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party. Chen's U.N. gambit of course took the KMT by surprise, as the party is now scrambling to find the right message to connect with the voters, who are suddenly deluded by Chen's rhetoric.

Getting a whole country to act delusional may be a political master stroke, but it's a dangerous game with deadly consequences. Taiwan will not get into the U.N., period, so it's a zero-sum game. This move has already peeved off the United States so much that Taiwan's latest fighter jet purchase to replace the aging F-5s has hit the skids. And of course, China is seething.

Chen doesn't care. He never stops scheming, whether it's bashing Chiang Kai-shek's statues or changing all entities with the name of "China" to "Taiwan," it's just a game for him. As long as the electorate is willing to be suckered, he will continue to invent new games.

Taiwan has languished over the last eight years under Chen's "leadership." While engaging in these political shenanigans, Chen has neglected to make a real pitch for Taiwan to gain actual political clout and international respect. And he has unnecessarily inflamed an already volatile situation across the Taiwan Strait by endlessly antagonizing China and testing the patience of its only patron, the United States.

China's leadership, on the other hand, has been rather shrewd in dealing with Chen. Unlike his predecessor Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao has kept his saber rattling to a minimum, knowing that he can better affect Taiwan's elections by keeping mum. He is hoping that the KMT and its presumed candidate Ma Ying-jeou will win the presidential election next March. Such an outcome would serve China's interests better because the KMT is far more likely to seek accommodations and normalize relations with China than the DDP.

But if the DDP pulls the upset -- and why wouldn't it, Chen already did it twice -- then all bets are off. China will rapidly seek a political endgame if it feels Taiwan is drifting further away. Since the Beijing Olympics is of monumental importance to the regime, China isn't likely to pursue any militarily aggressive stance until the Games are over. But after August 2008, things could get hot.

And when the missiles start flying across the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwanese people will have only one guy to blame. Not the brilliant politician, but the ultimate political hack.

Trojans Back in Front

(From BCS Guru)

A convincing victory at Nebraska did the trick, but barely. By regaining some of the lost No. 1 votes in the Coaches and AP polls, USC took back the top ranking in the Week 3 unofficial BCS standings, with a razor-thin edge over No. 2 LSU.

Both USC and LSU are safely ahead of the rest of the pack, led by Florida, which took over the No. 3 spot on the strength of its computer ratings. West Virginia and Texas round up the top 5.

Oklahoma, Ohio State, California, Wisconsin and Boston College are ranked Nos. 6-10. The Eagles landed in the top 10 after placing No. 22 last week.

Next week, the unofficial standings will take on an even clearer picture as the Harris Interactive Poll, which accounts for one-third of the official standings, makes its 2007 season debut.