(From BCS Guru)
Well, you just knew this had to happen, right? There isn't a single team that's immune to an upset, and Ohio State is just the latest victim in this season of upheaval.
The immediate beneficiaries are LSU, who outclassed an overmatched Louisiana Tech, and Oregon, who was eating cheeseburgers while reviewing its schematic advantage against Arizona next week. The Guru projects that the Tigers and Ducks will be the new occupants of Nos. 1 and 2.
But they should by no means rest easy. They may both be jumped without losing a game. Looming at No. 3 will be Kansas, the only remaining unbeaten BCS conference team. The Jayhawks will almost certainly vault to the Top 2 if they can win their three remaining games. Oklahoma should check in at No. 4 and then a big drop to No. 5 Missouri.
A couple of other developments that the Guru will expand on later this week: 1) Neither the Big Ten nor the Big East will have an eligible at-large team in the new BCS standings, which should help Hawai'i's cause. 2) The Big 12, SEC and Pac-10 are well positioned to secure an at-large entry, leaving the ACC vulnerable should Hawai'i qualify via either the Top 12 or the Top 16 rule.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. LSU, 2. Oregon, 3. Kansas, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Missouri, 6. Ohio State, 7. West Virginia, 8. Arizona State, 9. Georgia, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Texas, 12. Florida, 13. Boston College, 14. USC, 15. Hawai'i.
10 November 2007
09 November 2007
The World's Most Dangerous Man
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a punk, maybe a street thug ... compared to Vladimir Putin.
While the West vacillates about what to do with Iran's nuclear ambitions, it's quietly letting slide a monstrous buildup that may one day prove Tehran's shenanigans seriously inconsequential.
Could it be that we're at 1938 again?
Since Putin took over the presidency of ostensibly democratic new Russia in 2000, he has systematically eliminated his rivals, intimidated his neighbors, dismantled democratic institutions and consolidated his power. At the same time, he has bolstered Russia's international prestige and lifted it out of the economic doldrums that plagued the nation after the collapse of Soviet communism.
If this sounds like history is repeating itself, it just might be.
In 1938, Germany had freed itself from the shackles of the Treaty of Versailles and quickly regained its preeminence among the world's leading nations. Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 promising a reassertion of German nationalism and economic recovery, and in five years, he had mostly achieved those aims.
For that, he was lauded as a hero domestically, even as concentration camps were popping up all over the Reich and one-party rule was becoming more draconian by the day. The Germans, many of them, anyway, were enjoying the Autobahns and the summers on the Baltic, even if their Jewish neighbors were harassed and beaten during Kristallnacht and other activities on the dawn of the Holocaust.
Fast forward to 2007, the Russians likewise are enjoying a recovery of their own. With petrorubles pouring in, thanks to Putin's shrewd exploitation of Russia's rich natural resources, there is no debate that ordinary Russians are better off now than they were in the 1990s. And because of Putin's intransigence in all things that may be construed as pro-American -- Iraq, Iran, defense missiles shield -- he is slowly but surely reclaiming Russia's position as the most serious adversary of the United States.
The West's attitude toward Putin, to date, has been that of tacit tolerance, for various reason. In western Europe, where more than half of its natural gas is supplied by Russia, there is a real fear of having the spigot turned off by Moscow. Besides, European weakness toward an obnoxious neighbor is to be expected, from Munich in 1938, Budapest in 1956, Prague in 1968, to Belgrade in 1995. It's almost like clockwork.
The United States, on the other hand, has been unwilling to confront Putin head-on for absolutely no good reasons. The U.S. has no dependency on Russia of any sort. Putin has proved to be anything but an ally in the War on Terror. And as for checking China's growing influence ... yeah, China and Russia are all but in lockstep in terms of exercising their veto power in the United Nations, against actions that are of vital interest to the United States.
It may be that George W. Bush has a hard time living down this now infamous evaluation of Vladimir Putin the person, during a summit in June 2001: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul." In terms of sheer idiocy, this one blows away "Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job," by a country mile.
Of course, there's more to it then that. World leaders routinely misjudge their counterparts. (Truman once remarked about Stalin: "I think I can do business with Stalin. He's very honest, but he's also smart as hell.") But the good ones do not vest their nation's best interest in a non-existent personal relationship. But for Bush, a man who has trouble coming to terms with his own errors, this will take some sort of reckoning to fix.
But whether it's Bush, or his successor in the Oval Office, the Russian problem will have to be confronted, soon. Putin clearly has an agenda beyond next year, when he's obligated to leave office per Russia's constitution. He has intimated that he might run for prime minister. And while he has ruled out changing the constitution altogether to allow him to stay on as president, his pals are busy recasting him in a new role as "Father of the Nation."
Either way, he'll win the (re-)election in a landslide, for he is as popular in Russia as Bush is unpopular in the U.S. Emboldened by this, Putin's government will continue the harassment of uncooperative neighbors such as Georgia and the Ukraine, only with more intensity. And Iran will become a bigger flash point even if Iraq's situation stabilizes because the mullahs and Ahmadinejad wouldn't have this much courage without the Kremlin's backing.
The difference between Putin and Hitler, at the moment, is that it's uncertain whether Putin is bent on a destructive war. That said, Putin is potentially more dangerous because of what he has at his disposal: a nuclear arsenal, a substantial war machine, crucial natural resources, and a population that trusts his judgement. As a former KGB operative, Putin's ruthlessness (see: Alexander Litvinenko) cannot be underestimated.
So while we go on our merry way and continue to vest our energies dealing with third-world thugs such as Ahmadinejad and Kim Jung-il, maybe our leaders should devote a little more attention to Putin and his gang, and at least signal some willingness to stand up to them. Otherwise, the West may be repeating a lesson that should've been learned from Munich in 1938.
Britain and her allies might've stopped Hitler short of total war by refusing to flinch and appease. Instead, Neville Chamberlain waved a piece of paper and declared it to be "peace for our time."
Let's not have "I looked the man in the eye and ... was able to get a sense of his soul," etched as the epitaph of this generation.
While the West vacillates about what to do with Iran's nuclear ambitions, it's quietly letting slide a monstrous buildup that may one day prove Tehran's shenanigans seriously inconsequential.
Could it be that we're at 1938 again?
Since Putin took over the presidency of ostensibly democratic new Russia in 2000, he has systematically eliminated his rivals, intimidated his neighbors, dismantled democratic institutions and consolidated his power. At the same time, he has bolstered Russia's international prestige and lifted it out of the economic doldrums that plagued the nation after the collapse of Soviet communism.
If this sounds like history is repeating itself, it just might be.
In 1938, Germany had freed itself from the shackles of the Treaty of Versailles and quickly regained its preeminence among the world's leading nations. Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 promising a reassertion of German nationalism and economic recovery, and in five years, he had mostly achieved those aims.
For that, he was lauded as a hero domestically, even as concentration camps were popping up all over the Reich and one-party rule was becoming more draconian by the day. The Germans, many of them, anyway, were enjoying the Autobahns and the summers on the Baltic, even if their Jewish neighbors were harassed and beaten during Kristallnacht and other activities on the dawn of the Holocaust.
Fast forward to 2007, the Russians likewise are enjoying a recovery of their own. With petrorubles pouring in, thanks to Putin's shrewd exploitation of Russia's rich natural resources, there is no debate that ordinary Russians are better off now than they were in the 1990s. And because of Putin's intransigence in all things that may be construed as pro-American -- Iraq, Iran, defense missiles shield -- he is slowly but surely reclaiming Russia's position as the most serious adversary of the United States.
The West's attitude toward Putin, to date, has been that of tacit tolerance, for various reason. In western Europe, where more than half of its natural gas is supplied by Russia, there is a real fear of having the spigot turned off by Moscow. Besides, European weakness toward an obnoxious neighbor is to be expected, from Munich in 1938, Budapest in 1956, Prague in 1968, to Belgrade in 1995. It's almost like clockwork.
The United States, on the other hand, has been unwilling to confront Putin head-on for absolutely no good reasons. The U.S. has no dependency on Russia of any sort. Putin has proved to be anything but an ally in the War on Terror. And as for checking China's growing influence ... yeah, China and Russia are all but in lockstep in terms of exercising their veto power in the United Nations, against actions that are of vital interest to the United States.
It may be that George W. Bush has a hard time living down this now infamous evaluation of Vladimir Putin the person, during a summit in June 2001: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul." In terms of sheer idiocy, this one blows away "Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job," by a country mile.
Of course, there's more to it then that. World leaders routinely misjudge their counterparts. (Truman once remarked about Stalin: "I think I can do business with Stalin. He's very honest, but he's also smart as hell.") But the good ones do not vest their nation's best interest in a non-existent personal relationship. But for Bush, a man who has trouble coming to terms with his own errors, this will take some sort of reckoning to fix.
But whether it's Bush, or his successor in the Oval Office, the Russian problem will have to be confronted, soon. Putin clearly has an agenda beyond next year, when he's obligated to leave office per Russia's constitution. He has intimated that he might run for prime minister. And while he has ruled out changing the constitution altogether to allow him to stay on as president, his pals are busy recasting him in a new role as "Father of the Nation."
Either way, he'll win the (re-)election in a landslide, for he is as popular in Russia as Bush is unpopular in the U.S. Emboldened by this, Putin's government will continue the harassment of uncooperative neighbors such as Georgia and the Ukraine, only with more intensity. And Iran will become a bigger flash point even if Iraq's situation stabilizes because the mullahs and Ahmadinejad wouldn't have this much courage without the Kremlin's backing.
The difference between Putin and Hitler, at the moment, is that it's uncertain whether Putin is bent on a destructive war. That said, Putin is potentially more dangerous because of what he has at his disposal: a nuclear arsenal, a substantial war machine, crucial natural resources, and a population that trusts his judgement. As a former KGB operative, Putin's ruthlessness (see: Alexander Litvinenko) cannot be underestimated.
So while we go on our merry way and continue to vest our energies dealing with third-world thugs such as Ahmadinejad and Kim Jung-il, maybe our leaders should devote a little more attention to Putin and his gang, and at least signal some willingness to stand up to them. Otherwise, the West may be repeating a lesson that should've been learned from Munich in 1938.
Britain and her allies might've stopped Hitler short of total war by refusing to flinch and appease. Instead, Neville Chamberlain waved a piece of paper and declared it to be "peace for our time."
Let's not have "I looked the man in the eye and ... was able to get a sense of his soul," etched as the epitaph of this generation.
08 November 2007
Rooting Guide ... Part Deux
(From BCS Guru)
OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.
OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.
05 November 2007
The Guru's Rooting Guide
(From BCS Guru)
When the gun goes off at Michigan Stadium around 3:30 p.m. on Nov. 17, it will be the first game to end the 2007 regular season for both teams.
The question is: Will it really mark the start of the 2007 season?
An Ohio State victory will certainly return the Buckeyes to the BCS national championship game, leaving a mad scramble for perhaps half a dozen teams to claim the other spot. The contest will be a multi-media event, involving not only winning games on the field, but stating your case and having allies in the media to state your case for you.
But what if Ohio State loses?
It would be an upset, but hardly a historic one (we've had a few already this season, including one that kicked it off at the Big House). And a Buckeyes loss not only knocks them out of the national title picture, but leaves them out of a Rose Bowl berth as well. So now we'll have two available slots in the title game, and new battle lines will be drawn for the other eight BCS bowl spots.
To help you navigate through the finishing stretch of this turbulent season, the Guru presents the Rooting Guide. Now you will know who your friends and enemies are, and not make the mistake of rooting for the wrong team(s) at the most inopportune time.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Losable game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-2)
National title scenario: Controls its own destiny -- the only team that can say so with confidence. If Ohio State wins its remaining two games (vs. Illinois this week), then it will play for the BCS title for the second straight year.
BCS bowl scenario: No matter what happens, the Buckeyes won't be playing in the Rose Bowl. Win, then it's on to the title game in New Orleans. Lose, Michigan wins the Big Ten and nudges Ohio State to an at-large berth.
Root for: No one.
Root against: No one. It's highly unlikely that Ohio State would stay in the national title game hunt if it loses to Michigan.
2. LSU (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-3); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: The Bayou Bengals have the No. 2 spot for now. But it's conceivable that they would be jumped by an undefeated Kansas or, less likely, by No. 3 Oregon. LSU can use a little bit of insurance.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Arkansas. LSU needs both of those teams to have as good a record as possible to impress both computers and human voters.
Root against: Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The first four are fairly obvious, and the Tigers really don't want to play a 3-loss (or even maybe a 4-loss) Vols in the SEC title game.
3. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (5-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 3, but they're far from one LSU loss to be assured of a BCS title shot. They could jump LSU even if the Tigers win out. And they could be jumped by Kansas even if they win out. Since none of the Ducks' remaining opponents are even ranked, the most they can do is to finish strong and hope for the best.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma.
4. Kansas (9-0)
Losable games: Nov. 10 at Oklahoma State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (8-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Besides Ohio State, Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Of all the contenders, Kansas has the toughest road ahead to remain unbeaten. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss (or two) will make things easier for KU to clinch the Big XII North and gain a BCS bowl invite.
5. Oklahoma (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-3); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take at least two of the top three teams losing to get them into the national championship game. But in this strange season, you never say never.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
6. Missouri (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (9-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: After further review, the Guru decided to put the Tigers back in the national title chase, even if their chances are slim to none. In this crazy season, if two of the top three teams lose down the stretch, Mizzou will have a shot if it wins out.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Go 3-0 the rest of the regular season, a BCS bowl berth is probably assured. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed.
Root for: Oklahoma. Just like in Kansas' case, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia.
Later this week, the Guru will break down the chances for the rest of the BCS bowl contenders.
When the gun goes off at Michigan Stadium around 3:30 p.m. on Nov. 17, it will be the first game to end the 2007 regular season for both teams.
The question is: Will it really mark the start of the 2007 season?
An Ohio State victory will certainly return the Buckeyes to the BCS national championship game, leaving a mad scramble for perhaps half a dozen teams to claim the other spot. The contest will be a multi-media event, involving not only winning games on the field, but stating your case and having allies in the media to state your case for you.
But what if Ohio State loses?
It would be an upset, but hardly a historic one (we've had a few already this season, including one that kicked it off at the Big House). And a Buckeyes loss not only knocks them out of the national title picture, but leaves them out of a Rose Bowl berth as well. So now we'll have two available slots in the title game, and new battle lines will be drawn for the other eight BCS bowl spots.
To help you navigate through the finishing stretch of this turbulent season, the Guru presents the Rooting Guide. Now you will know who your friends and enemies are, and not make the mistake of rooting for the wrong team(s) at the most inopportune time.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Losable game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-2)
National title scenario: Controls its own destiny -- the only team that can say so with confidence. If Ohio State wins its remaining two games (vs. Illinois this week), then it will play for the BCS title for the second straight year.
BCS bowl scenario: No matter what happens, the Buckeyes won't be playing in the Rose Bowl. Win, then it's on to the title game in New Orleans. Lose, Michigan wins the Big Ten and nudges Ohio State to an at-large berth.
Root for: No one.
Root against: No one. It's highly unlikely that Ohio State would stay in the national title game hunt if it loses to Michigan.
2. LSU (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-3); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: The Bayou Bengals have the No. 2 spot for now. But it's conceivable that they would be jumped by an undefeated Kansas or, less likely, by No. 3 Oregon. LSU can use a little bit of insurance.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Arkansas. LSU needs both of those teams to have as good a record as possible to impress both computers and human voters.
Root against: Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The first four are fairly obvious, and the Tigers really don't want to play a 3-loss (or even maybe a 4-loss) Vols in the SEC title game.
3. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (5-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 3, but they're far from one LSU loss to be assured of a BCS title shot. They could jump LSU even if the Tigers win out. And they could be jumped by Kansas even if they win out. Since none of the Ducks' remaining opponents are even ranked, the most they can do is to finish strong and hope for the best.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma.
4. Kansas (9-0)
Losable games: Nov. 10 at Oklahoma State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (8-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Besides Ohio State, Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Of all the contenders, Kansas has the toughest road ahead to remain unbeaten. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss (or two) will make things easier for KU to clinch the Big XII North and gain a BCS bowl invite.
5. Oklahoma (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-3); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take at least two of the top three teams losing to get them into the national championship game. But in this strange season, you never say never.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
6. Missouri (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (9-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: After further review, the Guru decided to put the Tigers back in the national title chase, even if their chances are slim to none. In this crazy season, if two of the top three teams lose down the stretch, Mizzou will have a shot if it wins out.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Go 3-0 the rest of the regular season, a BCS bowl berth is probably assured. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed.
Root for: Oklahoma. Just like in Kansas' case, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia.
Later this week, the Guru will break down the chances for the rest of the BCS bowl contenders.
04 November 2007
The Plot Thickens
(From BCS Guru)
As expected, LSU and Oregon rose to Nos. 2 and 3, respectively in this week's BCS standings. Now, the mad dash to the finish begins for these two one-loss teams, trying to get that potential date with No. 1 Ohio State in New Orleans.
The Guru has added a new feature to the standings, now teams in contention for the national championship game, as well as BCS bowl games, are shaded in different colors. Later this week, the Guru will also offer a "Rooting Guide," which is a must-read for anybody with a team playing for either the BCS title or a BCS bowl berth.
As expected, LSU and Oregon rose to Nos. 2 and 3, respectively in this week's BCS standings. Now, the mad dash to the finish begins for these two one-loss teams, trying to get that potential date with No. 1 Ohio State in New Orleans.
The Guru has added a new feature to the standings, now teams in contention for the national championship game, as well as BCS bowl games, are shaded in different colors. Later this week, the Guru will also offer a "Rooting Guide," which is a must-read for anybody with a team playing for either the BCS title or a BCS bowl berth.
03 November 2007
The Curse of No. 2
(From BCS Guru)
For the third times this season, the second-ranked team in the BCS standings -- official or otherwise -- bit the dust. What Boston College's loss leaves us is a mad scramble by a group of one-loss teams for the coveted No. 2 spot, behind undefeated Ohio State.
The Guru projects that LSU will reclaim this position after a narrow victory over Alabama, with a reasonable lead over Oregon at No. 3. After that, there will be a significant dropoff to No. 4 Kansas, the only other BCS conference team without a loss, and No. 5 Oklahoma.
The Big Six conferences also will be scrambling for at-large berths. With Hawai'i still in striking distance for a guaranteed bid, that means three or four of these conferences will obtain the lucrative second bid. Each conference has at least two teams in the top 15, with the Big XII having three teams in the Top 10.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Oregon, 4. Kansas, 5. Oklahoma, 6. West Virginia, 7. Arizona State, 8. Missouri, 9. Boston College, 10. Georgia, 11. Virginia Tech, 12. Michigan, 13. Connecticut, 14. Hawai'i, 15. USC.
For the third times this season, the second-ranked team in the BCS standings -- official or otherwise -- bit the dust. What Boston College's loss leaves us is a mad scramble by a group of one-loss teams for the coveted No. 2 spot, behind undefeated Ohio State.
The Guru projects that LSU will reclaim this position after a narrow victory over Alabama, with a reasonable lead over Oregon at No. 3. After that, there will be a significant dropoff to No. 4 Kansas, the only other BCS conference team without a loss, and No. 5 Oklahoma.
The Big Six conferences also will be scrambling for at-large berths. With Hawai'i still in striking distance for a guaranteed bid, that means three or four of these conferences will obtain the lucrative second bid. Each conference has at least two teams in the top 15, with the Big XII having three teams in the Top 10.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Oregon, 4. Kansas, 5. Oklahoma, 6. West Virginia, 7. Arizona State, 8. Missouri, 9. Boston College, 10. Georgia, 11. Virginia Tech, 12. Michigan, 13. Connecticut, 14. Hawai'i, 15. USC.
01 November 2007
Easy Does It
(From BCS Guru)
With five weeks still left in this amazingly combustible 2007 season, the gnashing of the teeth has already started. In three weeks, one of the two BCS championship spots may be claimed and there's not a damn thing anybody can do anything about it.
If you're unhappy with Boston College possibly playing for the national title, then you should be mad as hell that Ohio State appears to be a mortal lock for a return visit to the BCS championship game.
Yep, with only three games remaining on their schedule, the Buckeyes just need to stay unbeaten and then wait out 50 days to redeem themselves for the title game flop a year ago against Florida.
The question is: Do they deserve to be in New Orleans?
Ohio State is 9-0, having won every game by at least a touchdown. The Buckeyes' stout defense has surrendered more than 10 points just once in nine games. They trailed at the half only once and were never behind in the fourth quarter in any of their games.
So they should be No. 1, right?
Nope. Not if you looked at whom they have beaten. Right now, the reason that they're atop the BCS standings has more to do with the gray helmets, scarlet uniforms and the ghost of Woody Hayes than anything else.
Ohio State has run roughshod through unarguably the weakest of the Big Six BCS conferences. According to the rankings of the six BCS computers, this is the mean score for each conference:
1. SEC -- 1.17
2. Pac-10 -- 2.83
3. ACC -- 3.83
4. Big XII -- 3.83
5. Big East -- 4.17
6. Big Ten -- 5.00
While it should surprise no one that the SEC and the Pac-10 are by far the toughest conferences, what's even more revealing is by how much the Big Ten trails the other conferences. Four of the six computers rank the Big Ten dead last among the BCS conferences.
Besides playing in a weak conference, Ohio State's non-conference schedule is also a farce. The Buckeyes beat two MAC teams -- Akron (3-5) and Kent State (3-6), the Pac-10's last-place team Washington (2-6) and I-AA Youngstown State (5-4). Ohio State's strength of schedule rating ranges from a best of 43 to a worst of 103 among 119 Division I-A teams.
Of the four unbeaten BCS conference teams, only Kansas's schedule is as forgiving as Ohio State's. Boston College and Arizona State have played -- and defeated -- far better competition. Among one-loss teams, LSU and Oregon have traveled a much more difficult road than Ohio State did.
The computers seem to get that, as Ohio State is far from a consensus No. 1. But the human voters have proved to be suckers for the sweater vest mystique. The Buckeyes received all but four of the 60 first-place votes in the coaches poll and were the unanimous No. 1 in the latest Harris poll.
At this point of the season, the human voters are unlikely to bump down the Buckeyes without them losing a game. And since they account for two-thirds of the BCS total, you can write them into the title game barring a little Lloyd Carr magic on Nov. 17 at the Big House.
But don't hold your breath.
This Week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Arizona State at Oregon -- It would be chic to say that this is for the Pac-10 championship. And it would be wrong -- though the winner of this game will have the inside track to no worse than a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA, which will host both teams later, has a chance to play the spoiler's role.
4-Star: LSU at Alabama -- This game will be even better next year when it comes to Baton Rouge. For now, Les Miles will have an opportunity to emerge from Nick Saban's considerable shadow. A loss not only knocks the Bayou Bengals out of national championship contention, it might even deny them a place in the SEC title game.
3-Star: Florida State at Boston College -- The Eagles have a pretty difficult finishing stretch, but this game shouldn't give them too much trouble. The Seminoles are a program at a crossroads, with a legendary coach refusing to step aside as everything crumbles around him. Matt Ryan will use this to polish his Heisman resume.
2-Star: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- If Ohio State is a paper tiger, then Wisconsin is a paper Siamese. The Badgers are just another one of the Big Ten pretenders, having feasted on feeble competition to get their 7-2 record. The Buckeyes seem set to win their 20th straight conference game, which would set a Big Ten record.
1-Star: Texas A&M at Oklahoma -- The Sooners' slim hopes of reaching the title game rest with winning their remaining games, as well as a strong record for Kansas or Missouri, whichever makes it to the Big XII title game -- and lots of other teams losing. If this sounds like too much needs to happen for OU, it is.
With five weeks still left in this amazingly combustible 2007 season, the gnashing of the teeth has already started. In three weeks, one of the two BCS championship spots may be claimed and there's not a damn thing anybody can do anything about it.
If you're unhappy with Boston College possibly playing for the national title, then you should be mad as hell that Ohio State appears to be a mortal lock for a return visit to the BCS championship game.
Yep, with only three games remaining on their schedule, the Buckeyes just need to stay unbeaten and then wait out 50 days to redeem themselves for the title game flop a year ago against Florida.
The question is: Do they deserve to be in New Orleans?
Ohio State is 9-0, having won every game by at least a touchdown. The Buckeyes' stout defense has surrendered more than 10 points just once in nine games. They trailed at the half only once and were never behind in the fourth quarter in any of their games.
So they should be No. 1, right?
Nope. Not if you looked at whom they have beaten. Right now, the reason that they're atop the BCS standings has more to do with the gray helmets, scarlet uniforms and the ghost of Woody Hayes than anything else.
Ohio State has run roughshod through unarguably the weakest of the Big Six BCS conferences. According to the rankings of the six BCS computers, this is the mean score for each conference:
1. SEC -- 1.17
2. Pac-10 -- 2.83
3. ACC -- 3.83
4. Big XII -- 3.83
5. Big East -- 4.17
6. Big Ten -- 5.00
While it should surprise no one that the SEC and the Pac-10 are by far the toughest conferences, what's even more revealing is by how much the Big Ten trails the other conferences. Four of the six computers rank the Big Ten dead last among the BCS conferences.
Besides playing in a weak conference, Ohio State's non-conference schedule is also a farce. The Buckeyes beat two MAC teams -- Akron (3-5) and Kent State (3-6), the Pac-10's last-place team Washington (2-6) and I-AA Youngstown State (5-4). Ohio State's strength of schedule rating ranges from a best of 43 to a worst of 103 among 119 Division I-A teams.
Of the four unbeaten BCS conference teams, only Kansas's schedule is as forgiving as Ohio State's. Boston College and Arizona State have played -- and defeated -- far better competition. Among one-loss teams, LSU and Oregon have traveled a much more difficult road than Ohio State did.
The computers seem to get that, as Ohio State is far from a consensus No. 1. But the human voters have proved to be suckers for the sweater vest mystique. The Buckeyes received all but four of the 60 first-place votes in the coaches poll and were the unanimous No. 1 in the latest Harris poll.
At this point of the season, the human voters are unlikely to bump down the Buckeyes without them losing a game. And since they account for two-thirds of the BCS total, you can write them into the title game barring a little Lloyd Carr magic on Nov. 17 at the Big House.
But don't hold your breath.
This Week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Arizona State at Oregon -- It would be chic to say that this is for the Pac-10 championship. And it would be wrong -- though the winner of this game will have the inside track to no worse than a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA, which will host both teams later, has a chance to play the spoiler's role.
4-Star: LSU at Alabama -- This game will be even better next year when it comes to Baton Rouge. For now, Les Miles will have an opportunity to emerge from Nick Saban's considerable shadow. A loss not only knocks the Bayou Bengals out of national championship contention, it might even deny them a place in the SEC title game.
3-Star: Florida State at Boston College -- The Eagles have a pretty difficult finishing stretch, but this game shouldn't give them too much trouble. The Seminoles are a program at a crossroads, with a legendary coach refusing to step aside as everything crumbles around him. Matt Ryan will use this to polish his Heisman resume.
2-Star: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- If Ohio State is a paper tiger, then Wisconsin is a paper Siamese. The Badgers are just another one of the Big Ten pretenders, having feasted on feeble competition to get their 7-2 record. The Buckeyes seem set to win their 20th straight conference game, which would set a Big Ten record.
1-Star: Texas A&M at Oklahoma -- The Sooners' slim hopes of reaching the title game rest with winning their remaining games, as well as a strong record for Kansas or Missouri, whichever makes it to the Big XII title game -- and lots of other teams losing. If this sounds like too much needs to happen for OU, it is.
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